Saturday 13 May 2023

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Analysis

Here are all the 26 finalists, in the order they will perform tonight:
Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Poland, Serbia, France, Cyprus, Spain, Sweden, Albania, Italy, Estonia, Finland, Czechia, Australia, Belgium, Armenia, Moldova, Ukraine, Norway, Germany, Lithuania, Israel, Slovenia, Croatia, United Kingdom.

Now for the 11‬ countries which failed to reach the final, but which will still vote tonight:‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
Azerbaijan, Denmark, Georgia, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Malta, Netherlands, Romania, San Marino.

N.B. Any use of "Tuesday" throughout this post means Tuesday 9 May 2023. Any use of "Thursday" means Thursday 11 May 2023. Any use of "tonight" or "this evening" means Saturday 13 May 2023.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex-USSR)
In: Estonia, Lithuania. Out: Latvia.

Just like last year, Estonia and Lithuania qualified for the Grand Final, whereas Latvia failed to qualify I’m glad Estonia qualified on Thursday evening as Alika’s “Bridges” is an excellent power ballad, which I think would be good as the opening song for a James Bond film. I’m equally glad Lithuania qualified. Although Monika Linkytė’s “Stay” has a slow start, it has a catchy chorus; furthermore, Monika has a beautiful voice, and sang well on Thursday evening. My only disappointment in this group was Latvia not qualifying, as I thought “Aijā” was well-performed and well-staged on Tuesday evening, and was therefore worthy of a place in the Grand Final. The upshot of all this is that, Estonia and Lithuania will be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televote points to each other, and Latvia will be able to give their top two jury points and top two televote points to Estonia and Lithuania.

Nordic area
In: Finland, Norway, Sweden. Out: Denmark, Iceland.

This has been an unusual year for Nordic area. Finland, Norway and Sweden, all of which took part in the First Semi-Final on Tuesday, qualified for the Grand Final. On the other hand, Denmark and Iceland, both of which took part in the Second Semi-Final on Thursday, failed to qualify this year. I’m glad Norway and Sweden qualified, as I thought they were two of the best songs on Tuesday evening. Finland was on my “Prefer not to qualify” list on Tuesday evening, largely because Käärijä’s “Cha Cha Cha” is not my taste in music, but I knew their entry was almost certain to qualify, and I’d have been shocked if it hadn’t qualified. As for Denmark and Iceland, their entries ended up on my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” list on Thursday evening. Although I liked their entries, there were too many other, better entries from other countries that I had a greater desire to see qualify on Thursday evening. The upshot of all this is that Finland, Norway and Sweden will all be able to give their top two jury points and top two televote points to each other, whereas Denmark and Iceland will be able to give their top three jury points and top three televote points to Finland, Norway and Sweden tonight.

Benelux
In: Belgium. Out: Netherlands. Didn’t enter: Luxembourg.

I’m glad Belgium qualified for the Grand Final, as “Because Of You” is a lively, catchy disco / party song, and Gustaph has a good voice, and sang in a powerful manner on Thursday evening. In fact, Belgium was one of the countries I voted for on Thursday evening. On the other hand, I’m glad the Netherlands failed to qualify this year, because I was disappointed with the live performance of “Burning Daylight” on Tuesday evening. The upshot of this is, the Netherlands will be able to give their 12 jury points and their 12 televoting points to Belgium tonight, but who will Belgium give its 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to tonight? Belgium can’t give any points to the Netherlands tonight as the Netherlands are not in the Grand Final.

Central Europe
In: Austria, Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Switzerland. Didn’t enter: Hungary, Slovakia.

This is a tricky group, it’s more difficult to spot trends here, and voting among these countries tends to be unpredictable. Anyway, this has been a good year so far for this group, because all six members of this group, that are taking part this year, are in the Grand Final. Of those, five countries (Austria, Czechia, Poland, Slovenia, Switzerland) reached the Grand Final via one of the semi-finals this year. Of course, Germany is automatically guaranteed a place in the final every year as a Big Five member). The upshot of all this, Austria, Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovenia and Switzerland will all be able to exchange jury points and televote points among each other tonight. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in this group.

Greece and Cyprus
In: Cyprus. Out: Greece.

Greece and Cyprus both performed in the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Second Semi-Final on Thursday evening, and were therefore able to vote for each other that evening. Of those two, Cyprus qualified, whereas Greece failed to qualify, on Thursday evening. So, Greece will still be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televote points to Cyprus tonight, but Cyprus won’t be able to give any jury points or televote points to Greece tonight. It’ll be interesting to see who Cyprus gives its 12 jury points and 12 televote points to.

Romania and Moldova
In: Moldova. Out: Romania.

Another pair of countries which tend to favour each other at Eurovision, but which happened to be in separate semi-finals this year (Moldova on Tuesday and Romania on Thursday), so they were unable to vote for each other either evening. Moldova qualified for the Grand Final on Tuesday evening, but Romania failed to qualify on Thursday evening. The upshot of this is, Romania will still be able to give its 12 jury points and its 12 televoting points to Moldova tonight, but Moldova won’t be able to give any jury points or televote points to Romania tonight. It’ll be interesting to see who Moldova gives its 12 jury points and 12 televote points to.

Former Yugoslavia
In: Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia.

Only three of the former Yugoslav countries (Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia) entered this year, but this has been a lucky year for them in that all three of them qualified to the Grand Final. That means they’ll all be able to give each other their top two jury points and their top two televoting points.

Founding Seven
By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:

In: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland. Out: Netherlands. Didn’t enter: Luxembourg.

It’s been a good year for the seven countries which participated in the first ever Eurovision Song Contest in 1956. The only two countries missing this year’s Grand Final, from this group, are the Netherlands, which failed to qualify on Tuesday evening, and Luxembourg, which last took part in 1993. Mind you, the only three countries from this group which needed to battle their way through the semi-finals this year were Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland; of those Belgium and Switzerland managed to qualify. France, Germany and Italy are automatic finalists every year as Big Five members.

And Finally
Tonight's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in. My only “Definitely don't want to qualify” country appearing tonight is Croatia, which was the first qualifying country to be called out on Tuesday evening. Of my “Prefer not to qualify” countries, Finland and Serbia qualified on Tuesday evening, whereas Austria qualified on Thursday evening. I would have preferred Ireland, Latvia and Malta to have qualified instead of Croatia, Finland and Serbia on Tuesday evening, and Georgia to have qualified instead of Austria on Thursday evening. At the end of the day, different people have different musical tastes to me and I cannot expect to have all my desired countries qualify. Although I personally don’t like the entries from Finland and Austria this year, it was obvious that Finland was almost certain to qualify on Tuesday evening, and Austria was almost certain to qualify on Thursday evening, and even I would have been shocked if either of those hadn’t qualified.

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