Sunday 31 May 2015

Eurovision Song Contest Statistics 2015

Following Sweden's sixth win this year, I've analysed the participating countries for the entire history of the Eurovision Song Contest. Some interesting statistics have emerged from this. You may click on one of the links below to jump to a particular section, or alternatively you may wish to read the whole document start to finish.

From Fourteen To Three Different Winners
Prior to Sweden's latest win, a different country won each year from 2001 to 2014 inclusive:

2001 Estonia (1st)
2002 Latvia (1st)
2003 Turkey (1st)
2004 Ukraine (1st)
2005 Greece (1st)
2006 Finland (1st)
2007 Serbia (1st)
2008 Russia (1st)
2009 Norway (3rd)
2010 Germany (2nd)
2011 Azerbaijan (1st)
2012 Sweden (5th)
2013 Denmark (3rd)
2014 Austria (2nd)

Figures in brackets indicate the cumulative win for that country, e.g. in 2014 Austria won for the second time.

Thus from 2001 to 2014 inclusive, there was a 14 year run of different winners. Also notice that, during that time there was an eight year run of first-time winners from 2001 to 2008 inclusive.

Sweden's latest win cuts the run of different winners each year from 14 years to just 3 years:
2013 Denmark (3rd)
2014 Austria (2nd)
2015 Sweden (6th)

The record for the longest run of a different winner each year currently stands at 16 years (1996 to 2011 inclusive). It will now take 13 years of different winners not in the 2013 to 2015 run to bring the current run back to 16 years of different winners (2013 to 2028), plus another year to beat it. As you will see in the next few posts that could well happen.

Can the eight year run of first-time winners be beaten? It can, although it will take until at least 2024 to happen. Further interesting trivia follows in the next few sections.

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Years Taken To First Win Eurovision Song Contest
Here are all the 26 countries that have won the Eurovision Song Contest at least once. Notice the number of years from first ever entry to first win varies considerably. Finland currently holds the record for longest wait for a first win: 45 years, i.e. it first won in 2006, 45 years after its first ever song in 1961. Serbia currently holds the record for shortest wait for a first win (see footnote for more though). The most recent first-time winner Azerbaijan (2011) had a short wait: 3 years after its debut entry in 2008.

Country
First Entry
First Win
Years After First Entry
Finland
1961
2006
45
Greece
1974
2005
31
Belgium
1956
1986
30
Yugoslavia
1961
1989
28
Turkey
1975
2003
28
Germany
1956
1982
26
Norway
1960
1985
25
Sweden
1958
1974
16
Russia
1994
2008
14
Monaco
1959
1971
12
United Kingdom
1957
1967
10
Austria
1957
1966
9
Italy
1956
1964
8
Spain
1961
1968
7
Estonia
1994
2001
7
Denmark
1957
1963
6
Luxembourg
1956
1961
5
Ireland
1965
1970
5
Israel
1973
1978
5
Azerbaijan
2008
2011
3
France
1956
1958
2
Latvia
2000
2002
2
The Netherlands
1956
1957
1
Ukraine
2003
2004
1
Switzerland[1]
1956
1956
0
Serbia
2007
2007
0

[1] The debut Eurovision Song Contest in 1956 was the only year each country was able to enter two songs.  Switzerland's second song of the night "Refrain" won the 1956 Contest, therefore its first ever song did not win.  Consequently, from 1956 to 2006, no country won with its first ever song.

Serbia thus became the first country to win with its first ever song (as an independent nation), which is why it had a shorter wait for its first win than Switzerland. It could be argued that Serbia previously participated as part of Serbia and Montenegro (2004), and part of Yugoslavia (1974, 1982, 1991, 1992). However on those occasions, the songs represented the whole of Serbia and Montenegro / Yugoslavia, not just Serbia itself. 2007 was the first year that Serbia's song just represented Serbia.

If Liechtenstein enters in the future, and wins with its first ever song, it could be said to have an even shorter wait for a first win having not previously entered as part of a larger country which no longer exists.

It's worth bearing in mind that the above list ignores the fact that some countries missed a few years in their history. For example, Finland first won in 2006, 45 years after its first entry in 1961. However it missed the Contests of 1970, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001 and 2003.

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Still Waiting For A First Win
Now for the countries which have yet to achieve their first win:

N.B. Each country's debut year is shown after its name. Estonia, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia entered the 1993 qualifying round Kvalifikacija za Millstreet in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on 3 April 1993, but didn't qualify for the 1993 Eurovision Song Contest, and thus their debut year is officially recognised as 1994. F.Y.R. Macedonia entered the audio qualifier for the 1996 Eurovision Song Contest, but failed to qualify, and thus its debut year is officially recognised as 1998. However since the advent of semi-finals in 2004, the debut year is the year a country first appeared in the semi-final, whether or not it qualified to the final.

Long Time Runners (pre-2000)

Country
First Entry
Years Since First Entry
Portugal
1964
51
Malta
1971
44
Morocco
1980
35
Cyprus
1981
34
Iceland
1986
29
Slovenia
1993
22
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1993
22
Croatia
1993
22
Romania
1994
21
Slovakia
1994
21
Lithuania
1994
21
Hungary
1994
21
Poland
1994
21
F.Y.R. Macedonia
1998
17

That's 14 countries altogether. One significant subset is the seven which debuted in 1994; Estonia won in 2001 and Russia won in 2008, therefore 5 of the 7 which first entered in 1994 have yet to achieve their first win. Another interesting group are the three ex-Yugoslav countries which debuted in 1993; 22 years on and none of those three have won yet. If one of each of the above countries wins every year, it will take 14 years for them all to win once (if Morocco ever makes a comeback).

If Portugal wins next year, it will have taken 52 years (more than half a century) to achieve its first win, which will snatch the record for longest wait for a first win from Finland (45 years). My advice to Portugal, try singing in English; it might then stand a chance.

Will Morocco ever return to the Eurovision Song Contest? If it enters, reaches the final and wins next year, it will have the second longest wait for a first win: 36 years (1980 - 2016). However it will also have the longest gap between entries: 36 years. Bizarrely though, it will have won on only its second attempt (just like Ukraine in 2004)!

Recent Newcomers (since 2004)
Since the introduction of semi-finals in 2004, 14 new countries have entered the Eurovision Song Contest from 2004 onwards. The most recent was Australia in 2015 as an invited guest to mark the Contest's 60th year, and whose future participation is currently uncertain. That aside the most recent countries eligible for regular participation were Azerbaijan and San Marino in 2008. Of the 14 which debuted since 2004, Serbia won in 2007 (the very first time it entered as Serbia) and Azerbaijan won in 2011 (3 years after first entering in 2008). The other 12 countries from this group are still waiting for their first win:

Country
First Entry
Years Since First Entry
Belarus
2004
11
Andorra[2]
2004
11
Albania
2004
11
Serbia & Montenegro[3]
2004
11
Moldova
2005
10
Bulgaria
2005
10
Armenia
2006
9
Georgia
2007
8
Montenegro
2007
8
Czech Republic[2]
2007
8
San Marino
2008
7
Australia[4]
2015
0

[2] Never qualified to final
[3] Nation no longer exists
[4] 60th Contest guest participant in 2015; future participation currently uncertain

How long will it be before any of the countries in this group have their first win? Note that Serbia & Montenegro no longer exists as a joint country and Australia was originally intended to be a one-off guest participant for the 60th Contest in 2015. Therefore that leaves 10 countries in this group, and thus it will take at least 10 years for them to win once each.

Taking the two groups together, that's 24 countries still waiting for their first ever win (25 if Australia is allowed to continue as a regular participant). So you see, it's quite possible for the eight year run of first-time winners (2001 to 2008) to be beaten (2016 to 2024 and beyond). Furthermore, first time wins for each of these countries during forthcoming years will continue the trend of a different winner each year since 2013.

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Years Since Last Win

Distant Past Winners (pre-2000)
By this I mean countries that last won before the turn of the millennium. Altogether, I've found 12 countries that last won in 1998 or earlier still waiting to win again. Note that one of them Yugoslavia no longer exists, so that leaves 11 countries.

Country
Last Win
Years Since Last Win
Spain
1969
46
Monaco
1971
44
The Netherlands
1975
40
France
1977
38
Luxembourg
1983
32
Belgium
1986
29
Switzerland
1988
27
Yugoslavia[5]
1989
26
Italy
1990
25
Ireland
1996
19
United Kingdom
1997
18
Israel
1998
17

[5] Nation no longer exists

Monaco was absent from Eurovision from 1980 to 2003 inclusive. 2004 to 2006 inclusive it entered but failed to qualify from the semi-finals. Since 2007 it has been absent again. Will it return in 2016, and if so will it qualify to the final for the first time since the introduction of semi-finals in 2004? If returns, reaches the final and wins, it will have had 45 years gap between wins.

Luxembourg last entered in 1993. Will it ever return? If it does come back and win next year, it will have had 33 years gap between wins (1983 - 2016).

If Italy continues to participate and wins next year, it will have had 26 years gap between wins (1990 - 2016), thereby equalling its previous 26 year gap between wins (1964 - 1990).

If any one of the above countries wins next year, it will extend the current run of a different country winning each year by one year, i.e. 2013 to 2016 inclusive. With 11 countries which haven't won for at least 17 years (1998 or earlier), plus 24 countries still waiting for their first ever win, the current trend of a different winner each year (since 2013) is likely to continue for several years to come.

Recent Winners
Now for the countries whose last win was in 2001 or later. Sweden has won twice since then, 2012 and 2015, but only Sweden's 2015 win is shown. Although I've described this group as "recent" winners, it's already quite a long time since some of them last won; 10 years plus in the case of Greece, Ukraine, Turkey, Latvia and Estonia.

Country
Last Win
Years Since Last Win
Estonia
2001
14
Latvia
2002
13
Turkey
2003
12
Ukraine
2004
11
Greece
2005
10
Finland
2006
9
Serbia
2007
8
Russia
2008
7
Norway
2009
6
Germany
2010
5
Azerbaijan
2011
4
Denmark
2013
2
Austria
2014
1
Sweden
2015
0

If any country which won between 2001 and 2011 inclusive wins next year, it will extend the current run of a different country winning each year by one year, i.e. 2013 to 2016 inclusive. With 11 countries in the 2001 to 2011 year range, plus another 11 countries which haven't won for at least 17 years (1998 or earlier), plus 24 countries still waiting for their first ever win, the current trend of a different winner each year (since 2013) is likely to continue for several years to come.

If Denmark wins next year, the run of a different winning country each year will remain the same as now, 3 years (2014 to 2016).

If either Austria or Sweden wins next year, the run of different winning countries each year will be reduced accordingly. For example, if Austria wins next year, one will need to start the new list at Sweden 2015 and finish with Austria 2016, i.e. a 2 year run of a different winning country each year.

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Gaps Between Wins
Sweden won the Eurovision Song Contest 2015. That means a 3 year gap between its previous win in 2012 and its latest win in 2015. Although that is its shortest gap between wins to-date, several countries have had shorter gaps of just one or two years between wins in the history of the Contest.

The following table shows the gaps between wins for every country that has won more than once. Where a country has won more than twice (and hence has more than one gap between wins), all gaps between wins for that country are shown. Ireland has won seven times to-date, and therefore has six entries in the table below.

The following table, and notes beneath it, ignore the fact that some countries missed one or more years between wins. Austria currently holds the record for longest gap between wins: 48 years (1966 - 2014). Between its wins in 1966 and 2014, it missed several years (1969, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1998, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010).

Country
Years Between Wins
From
To
Austria
48
1966
2014
Denmark
37
1963
2000
Switzerland
32
1956
1988
Germany
28
1982
2010
Italy
26
1964
1990
Israel
19
1979
1998
United Kingdom
16
1981
1997
Norway
14
1995
2009
Sweden
13
1999
2012
Denmark
13
2000
2013
The Netherlands
10
1959
1969
Ireland
10
1970
1980
Luxembourg
10
1973
1983
Sweden
10
1974
1984
Norway
10
1985
1995
France
8
1969
1977
Sweden
8
1991
1999
France
7
1962
1969
Luxembourg
7
1965
1972
United Kingdom
7
1969
1976
Ireland
7
1980
1987
Sweden
7
1984
1991
The Netherlands
6
1969
1975
United Kingdom
5
1976
1981
Ireland
5
1987
1992
Luxembourg
4
1961
1965
Sweden
3
2012
2015
The Netherlands
2
1957
1959
France
2
1958
1960
France
2
1960
1962
United Kingdom
2
1967
1969
Ireland
2
1994
1996
Spain
1
1968
1969
Luxembourg
1
1972
1973
Israel
1
1978
1979
Ireland
1
1992
1993
Ireland
1
1993
1994

The current record for longest gap between wins, 48 years will now take until at least 2018 to be broken; if Spain now take until 2018 to win again it will have had 49 years gap between wins (1969 - 2018).

If any of the following four countries win next year, they will have the second longest gap between wins:
Spain 47 years (1969 - 2016)
Monaco 45 years (1971 - 2016) (that is, if Monaco returns next year)
The Netherlands 41 years (1975 - 2016)
France 39 years (1977 - 2016)

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How Many Wins?
Finally here is a table showing how many times each country has ever won the Eurovision Song Contest from 1956 to 2015 inclusive.

Country
Number Of Wins
Albania
0
Andorra
0
Armenia
0
Australia
0
Austria
2
Azerbaijan
1
Belarus
0
Belgium
1
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0
Bulgaria
0
Croatia
0
Cyprus
0
Czech Republic
0
Denmark
3
Estonia
1
F.Y.R. Macedonia
0
Finland
1
France
5
Georgia
0
Germany
2
Greece
1
Hungary
0
Iceland
0
Ireland
7
Israel
3
Italy
2
Latvia
1
Lithuania
0
Luxembourg
5
Malta
0
Moldova
0
Monaco
1
Montenegro
0
Morocco
0
Norway
3
Poland
0
Portugal
0
Romania
0
Russia
1
San Marino
0
Serbia
1
Serbia & Montenegro
0
Slovakia
0
Slovenia
0
Spain
2
Sweden
6
Switzerland
2
The Netherlands
4
Turkey
1
Ukraine
1
United Kingdom
5
Yugoslavia
1

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