Friday 17 May 2019

Eurovision Song Contest 2019 Analysis

Here are all the 26 finalists, in the order they will perform tomorrow night:
Malta, Albania, Czech Republic, Germany, Russia, Denmark, San Marino, North Macedonia, Sweden, Slovenia, Cyprus, Netherlands, Greece, Israel, Norway, United Kingdom, Iceland, Estonia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, France, Italy, Serbia, Switzerland, Australia, Spain.

Now for the ‭15‬ countries which failed to reach the final, but which will still vote tomorrow night:‬‬‬‬‬
Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Finland, Georgia, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Portugal, Romania.

N.B. Any use of "Tuesday" throughout this post means Tuesday 14 May 2019. Any use of "Thursday", "yesterday evening" or "last night" means Thursday 16 May 2019. Any use of "tomorrow" means Saturday 18 May 2019.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex-USSR)
IN: Estonia. OUT: Latvia, Lithuania.

Only one member of this group, Estonia, is through this year. I'm glad Estonia qualified Tuesday evening, because Victor Crone gave an impressive performance of "Storm" that evening, and therefore Estonia was one of the countries on my "Definitely want to qualify" list that evening; I would have voted for Estonia had the UK been voting Tuesday evening. The other two countries in this group, Latvia and Lithuania, both of which were in the Second Semi-Final yesterday evening, are out. I'm glad Latvia is out, because I thought "That Night" was monotonous and boring, which is why it ended up on my "Definitely don't want to qualify" list. As for Lithuania "Run With The Lions" is a ballad I felt middle-the-road about from first seeing the preview video to watching the live performance in the Second Semi-Final yesterday evening; hence this ended up on my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" list yesterday evening. I wouldn't have minded seeing it in the final, but now it's been eliminated, I won't miss it tomorrow.

So, Latvia and Lithuania will both be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to Estonia tomorrow evening, but who will Estonia give it's 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to tomorrow night? Estonia won't be able to give them to Latvia, Lithuania, or even the neighbouring Nordic country Finland, as all of them have been eliminated.

Benelux
IN: Netherlands. OUT: Belgium. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again)

Belgium failed to qualify Tuesday evening. Although I was unimpressed with the online video of "Wake Up", I thought Tuesday evening's live performance was better, and it ended up on my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" list that evening. I won't miss it tomorrow evening, but having said that, I'd have sooner seen Belgium in place of the much weaker (but fun and catchy) entry from San Marino. On the other hand, the Netherlands qualified last night. I'm glad the Netherlands are through; I've enjoyed the preview video of "Arcade" since it first appeared online, and although I was a bit disappointed with the live performance last night, I still voted for the Netherlands last night.

The upshot of this is, Belgium will still be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to the Netherlands tomorrow night (especially as Duncan Laurence has been strongly tipped to win for so long now), but who will the Netherlands give their high points to, now that they can't vote for Belgium?

Nordic area
IN: Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden. OUT: Finland.

The Nordic area did well this year, with four of the five Nordic countries qualifying to the final. To be honest, I'm glad Finland was eliminated on Tuesday evening. Undeniably Darude is famous for his instrumental "Sandstorm" from several years ago, but I thought "Look Away" sounded somewhat dull and unimpressive by comparison, which is why Finland ended up on my "Prefer not to qualify" list Tuesday evening. I'm delighted and over the moon that Norway are through, as I particularly liked "Spirit in the Sky" from the moment I first saw the preview video, and I liked it just as much performed live last night; it was the one song I most wanted to qualify last night, which is why I voted for it. Also, I'm glad Sweden qualified, as "Too Late For Love" was one of the better songs last night, which is why I also voted for Sweden. As for Denmark, I felt borderline about "Love Is Forever"; it's a nice ballad, and Leonora has a beautiful voice, but I can't see it doing all that well tomorrow evening. Denmark ended up on my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" list last night. Anyway, I'm glad Denmark qualified instead of Armenia, Ireland, Moldova, Latvia or Romania, all of which I didn't want in the final. Iceland is the only member of this group I didn't want in the final. I detested "Hatrið mun sigra" ever since it won Söngvakeppnin 2019 Final (which I watched online live from the UK), which is why it ended up on my "Prefer not to qualify" list Tuesday evening. Admittedly I don't like heavy / thrash metal anyway, but I appreciate plenty of people love that genre, and I guessed Hatari were almost certain to qualify.

Anyway, Denmark, Iceland, Norway and Sweden will now be able to exchange high jury and high televoting points between each other, and Finland will still be able to give its top jury and top televoting points to Denmark, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.

Greece and Cyprus
IN: Cyprus, Greece.

Well done to Greece and Cyprus in qualifying from the First Semi-Final on Tuesday evening. I'm glad both of them are through as I thought their performances were among the most impressive on Tuesday evening, which is why both ended up on my "Definitely want to qualify" list that evening; I would have voted for both of them had the UK been voting that evening.

That now means Greece and Cyprus will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points tomorrow evening.

Former Yugoslavia
IN: North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia. OUT: Croatia, Montenegro. (Bosnia & Herzegovina didn't enter this year).

This has been another year of mixed fortunes for the former Yugoslavia, with three of the five ex-Yugoslav countries taking part this year reaching the final. I'm overjoyed that Slovenia qualified on Tuesday evening, as I particularly liked their song from the moment it won the EMA 2019 Final (which I watched online from the UK). "Sebi" is the one song I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening, and I would have voted for it if the UK had been voting that evening. Although Zala's voice seems soft, the song is probably meant to be sung softly. Serbia and North Macedonia ended up on my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" lists Tuesday and Thursday evening respectively. I'm pleased to see both of them through to the final, but wouldn't have missed them if either or both had failed to qualify. I must admit, it's good to see North Macedonia in the final for the first time since 2012, especially as it's their first year of taking part under the name "North Macedonia". It's a pity Croatia didn't qualify last night, as I liked Croatia's "The Dream" more than North Macedonia's "Proud", which is why Croatia was one of the countries I voted for last night. I'm glad Montenegro are out, because I thought "Heaven" was one of the dullest entries on Tuesday evening.

The upshot of this is, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia will be able to exchange high jury points and high televoting points among each other tomorrow night, and Croatia and Montenegro will be able to award their top jury and top televoting points to North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia.

Founding Seven
By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:

IN: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland. OUT: Belgium. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again)

As I said earlier, I didn't mind Belgium failing to qualify on Tuesday evening. I'm glad the Netherlands and Switzerland qualified yesterday evening, as both were on my "Definitely want to qualify" list, and thus I voted for both of them, yesterday evening. Of course, France, Germany and Italy qualified automatically for the final as Big Five members.

And Finally
Tomorrow evening's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in. There were just a few countries on my "Prefer not to qualify" list (Czech Republic, Iceland, San Marino), which went through against my wishes Tuesday evening. I would have preferred Poland, Hungary and Belgium in place of Czech Republic, Iceland and San Marino. I'm not surprised Czech Republic and Iceland qualified, as both were among the most expected qualifiers. The biggest surprise was San Marino; although their entry is fun and catchy, I thought it was one of the weakest contenders of the First Semi-Final. At the end of the day, different people have different musical tastes to me and I cannot expect to have all my desired countries qualify.

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