Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Grand Final Extended Voting Analysis

Host country: Sweden (SVT)
Venue: Globe Arena, Stockholm
Hosts: Petra Mede and Måns Zelmerlöw
Date: Saturday 14 May 2016
Winner: Ukraine - Jamala "1944" (534 points)

My main Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Grand Final review, including the opening act, songs, interval acts, jury voting and rapid announcement of the televoting results is available here. This supplement is intended to be read in addition to, and not instead of, that report.

N.B. Any use of "tonight" or "this evening" throughout this post means Saturday 14 May 2016. Any use of "Tuesday" means Tuesday 10 May 2016, whereas any reference to "Thursday" means Thursday 12 May 2016. Graham Norton was the UK commentator for BBC One / BBC One HD. Although UK heard his comments during the Grand Final, if you saw the Contest outside the UK you wouldn't have heard his comments.

To make this report easier to read, I've split it into sections. Click the applicable link below to jump to the section you want to read:
Extended Televoting Analysis
Jury and Televoting Comparison
Alternative Voting Presentation
Conclusion

Extended Televoting Analysis

13 of the 26 finalists received at least one 12 point vote from the televoting. The number of 12 point votes received by each of those 13 countries is shown in the table below.

12 Points to	No of 12s Received
Russia	10
Serbia	6
Ukraine	6
Armenia	3
Australia	3
Lithuania	3
Belgium	2
Bulgaria	2
Poland	2
Sweden	2
Cyprus	1
France	1
Latvia	1

Notice that the highest number of 12-point scores (10 altogether) was received by Russia, who won the televoting, but finished just third overall. If this year's results had been determined by televoting points alone, the country with the most 12-point scores (Russia) would have won outright. Two countries received the second highest number of 12-point scores (6 altogether); one of them was Ukraine, which finished second in the televoting, but ended up winning the Contest overall. Interestingly Serbia also received 12 televoting points from 6 countries, but finished just 11th in the televoting and 18th overall. Clearly getting the second highest number of 12-point scores in the televoting wasn't, in itself, enough to finish top three in the televoting. France received one 12-point score, and finished 9th in the televoting (and 6th overall). On the other hand, Cyprus and Latvia, which also received one 12-point score each in the televoting, finished 15th and 13th respectively in the televoting. Clearly one 12-point score alone wasn't enough to guarantee a top ten place in the televoting.

Russia, which won the televote, received points from every other country (the lowest of which was 3) in the televoting. The 10 countries which awarded 12 televoting points to Russia were: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine. The other 31 countries gave between 3 and 10 televoting points to Russia. Interestingly Russia received at least one of each points level from 3 to 12 points inclusive (3-4-5-6-7-8-10-12) in the televoting. The number of times Russia received each particular points level in the televoting is summarised in the following table:

Points level	To Russia	Russia Pts
0	0	0
1	0	0
2	0	0
3	1	3
4	1	4
5	1	5
6	5	30
7	3	21
8	11	88
10	9	90
12	10	120
TOTAL	41	361

The 6 countries which awarded 12 televoting points to eventual winners Ukraine were: Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Poland, San Marino. 34 other countries gave between 2 and 10 televoting points to Ukraine. Interestingly no countries gave 1 televoting point to Ukraine. Iceland was the only country (other than Ukraine itself) which gave no televoting points at all to Ukraine. The number of times Ukraine received each particular points level (or no points at all) in the televoting is summarised in the following table:

Points level	To Ukraine	Ukraine Pts
0	1	0
1	0	0
2	1	2
3	1	3
4	4	16
5	1	5
6	4	24
7	7	49
8	4	32
10	12	120
12	6	72
TOTAL	41	323

The complete list of 12 televote point scores and televote points awarded to Australia (jury vote winner), Russia (televote winner) and Ukraine (outright winner) is shown below:

From country	12 televote points to	To Australia	To Russia	To Ukraine
Albania	Australia	12	7	6
Armenia	Russia	0	12	10
Australia	Belgium	n/a	5	8
Austria	Poland	3	8	10
Azerbaijan	Russia	2	12	10
Belarus	Russia	1	12	10
Belgium	Poland	4	6	2
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Serbia	3	6	7
Bulgaria	Russia	5	12	10
Croatia	Serbia	5	8	10
Cyprus	Bulgaria	5	10	7
Czech Republic	Ukraine	1	10	12
Denmark	Sweden	10	4	3
Estonia	Russia	4	12	8
F.Y.R. Macedonia	Serbia	3	8	6
Finland	Ukraine	7	8	12
France	Armenia	0	6	10
Georgia	Armenia	1	8	10
Germany	Russia	5	12	6
Greece	Cyprus	5	10	6
Hungary	Ukraine	3	10	12
Iceland	Sweden	8	7	0
Ireland	Lithuania	6	8	4
Israel	France	5	10	8
Italy	Ukraine	0	8	12
Latvia	Russia	6	12	10
Lithuania	Latvia	5	8	10
Malta	Australia	12	10	4
Moldova	Russia	5	12	10
Montenegro	Serbia	0	10	8
Norway	Lithuania	8	6	4
Poland	Ukraine	7	8	12
Russia	Armenia	4	n/a	10
San Marino	Ukraine	5	10	12
Serbia	Russia	6	12	7
Slovenia	Serbia	3	10	7
Spain	Bulgaria	4	8	7
Sweden	Australia	12	8	7
Switzerland	Serbia	1	6	4
The Netherlands	Belgium	5	3	7
Ukraine	Russia	4	12	n/a
United Kingdom	Lithuania	6	7	5
		191	361	323

Sweden (as host country) was the only Nordic country in the Grand Final this year, but all five Nordic countries voted in the final as follows:

Calling country	Sweden
Denmark	12
Finland	10
Iceland	12
Norway	7
TOTAL	41

Of course, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway, which were eliminated in the semi-finals could only give, and not receive points this time. Furthermore since Sweden was the only Nordic country in the Grand Final, and could not give itself points, Sweden doesn't appear as a calling country in this table. Sweden received more televoting points than jury points from the other Nordic countries. Even so, notice how Norway gave just 7 televoting points to Sweden. Evidently Norway doesn't necessarily give Sweden 12 points.

The three Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania exchanged televoting points with each other as follows. Of course Estonia, which failed to qualify for the final, could only give and not receive points this time. As you can see, the televoting points awarded to Latvia and Lithuania varied considerably. Clearly these three countries don't necessarily give top marks to the others in this group.

Calling country	Latvia	Lithuania
Estonia	7	5
Latvia	n/a	8
Lithuania	12	n/a
TOTAL	19	13

The ex-Yugoslav countries awarded televoting points in an interesting manner, as shown in the following table:

Calling country	Croatia	Serbia
Bosnia & Herzegovina	10	12
Croatia	n/a	12
F.Y.R. Macedonia	5	12
Montenegro	6	12
Serbia	4	n/a
Slovenia	8	12
TOTAL	33	60

Serbia received 12 televoting points from each of the other five ex-Yugoslav countries, totalling 60 altogether. That meant three quarters of the 80 televoting points Serbia ended up with were from the other five ex-Yugoslav countries. Croatia also received televoting points from each of the other five ex-Yugoslav countries, ranging from 4 to 10 points, and totalling 33. In other words, the 33 televoting points that Croatia ended up with altogether were all from the other five ex-Yugoslav countries. Notice in particular that Serbia received 12 televoting points from Croatia, but Croatia received just 4 televoting points from Serbia. That blew out of the window anyone's expectation that Croatia and Serbia would automatically give each other 12 televoting points. Of course Bosnia & Herzegovina, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Montenegro and Slovenia, all of which failed to qualify for the final, could only give and not receive points.

Surprisingly San Marino gave no televoting points at all to Italy. Evidently San Marino doesn't necessarily award points to its only neighbour Italy.

Greece gave 12 televoting points to Cyprus. Whereas Greece gave just 8 jury points to Cyprus, the Greeks were evidently back to their more regular habit of giving 12 points to Cyprus on televoting. Of course Cyprus couldn't give anything to Greece on either voting system this time, because Greece failed to qualify for the Grand Final. Interestingly Cyprus gave its 12 televoting points to Bulgaria.

The Netherlands gave 12 televoting points to Belgium, but Belgium gave 10 televoting points to The Netherlands. Evidently these two Benelux countries don't necessarily give each other 12 points.

Only three countries awarded televoting points to the UK.

Calling country	Points to UK
Australia	4
Ireland	3
Malta	1
TOTAL	8

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Jury and Televoting Comparison

A sortable table, with all the jury, televoting and final points and placings, is shown below.

#	Participant	Jury Total	Jury Place	Televote Points	Televote Place	Final Points	Final Place	Tele-Jury Pts Diff	Tele-Jury Place Diff
18	Russia	130	5	361	1	491	3	231	4
12	Poland	7	25	222	3	229	8	215	22
21	Ukraine	211	2	323	2	534	1	112	0
24	Austria	31	24	120	8	151	13	89	16
8	Bulgaria	127	7	180	5	307	4	53	2
15	Serbia	35	23	80	11	115	18	45	12
4	Azerbaijan	44	19	73	12	117	17	29	7
26	Armenia	115	10	134	7	249	7	19	3
9	Sweden	122	9	139	6	261	5	17	3
14	Cyprus	43	20	53	15	96	21	10	5
10	Germany	1	26	10	24	11	26	9	2
5	Hungary	52	18	56	14	108	19	4	4
20	Latvia	69	15	63	13	132	15	-6	2
17	Croatia	40	22	33	19	73	23	-7	3
16	Lithuania	104	12	96	10	200	9	-8	2
11	France	148	3	109	9	257	6	-39	-6
2	Czech Republic	41	21	0	26	41	25	-41	-5
25	United Kingdom	54	17	8	25	62	24	-46	-8
6	Italy	90	13	34	18	124	16	-56	-5
23	Georgia	80	14	24	20	104	20	-56	-6
19	Spain	67	16	10	23	77	22	-57	-7
3	The Netherlands	114	11	39	17	153	11	-75	-6
1	Belgium	130	6	51	16	181	10	-79	-10
7	Israel	124	8	11	22	135	14	-113	-14
22	Malta	137	4	16	21	153	12	-121	-17
13	Australia	320	1	191	4	511	2	-129	-3

N.B. Tele-Jury Pts Diff: the difference between the total number of televoting points and total number of jury points a country received. Calculated as follows: televoting points total - jury points total. Thus if a country received fewer televoting points than jury points (e.g. Australia) this is negative, if a country received more televoting points than jury points (e.g. Russia) this is positive.

Tele-Jury Place Diff: the difference between the televoting place and jury place of a country. Calculated as follows: jury place - televoting place. France was 3rd in the jury voting, 9th in the televoting (6 places lower than jury voting, shown as -6). Sweden was 9th in the jury voting and 6th in the televoting, (3 places higher than jury voting, shown as 3). Due to movement of other countries on the scoreboard, the actual from and to placings, and number of places which a particular country e.g. France moved on the scoreboard at the moment its televoting total was announced may have been different.

Russia had the biggest difference between jury and televoting points. Its televoting total of 361 points was 231 points higher than the 130 points it received from the juries. However Russia's televoting place (1st) was just 4 places higher than its jury place (5th). Russia finished 3rd with 491 points overall. Notice Russia received considerably more 8, 10 and 12 point scores in the televoting than it did in the jury voting. Furthermore Russia received points from every other country (the lowest of which was 3) in the televoting, whereas only 20 countries gave jury points to Russia.

Points level	To Russia (Jury)	Russia Jury Points	To Russia (Televoting)	Russia Televoting Points
0	21	0	0	0
1	2	2	0	0
2	1	2	0	0
3	1	3	1	3
4	2	8	1	4
5	1	5	1	5
6	3	18	5	30
7	4	28	3	21
8	2	16	11	88
10	0	0	9	90
12	4	48	10	120
TOTAL	41	130	41	361

The country with the biggest difference overall between jury and televoting points and placing is Poland. Its televoting total of 222 points was 215 points higher than the 7 points it received from the juries. In addition, its televoting place 3rd was a whopping 22 places higher than its jury place of 25th. No country had points and place differences of this magnitude lower on televoting than jury voting. It should be noted that, due to movement of other countries around the scoreboard as the televoting totals were announced, Poland was actually in 26th place on the scoreboard as its televoting total of 222 points was announced, thereby pushing it up to 6th place temporarily. Once all the televoting scores were added, Poland finished 8th overall with 229 points. The following two tables show which countries awarded points to Poland in the jury voting and televoting.

Jury Voting

Calling country	Points to Poland
Lithuania	3
Azerbaijan	2
Montenegro	1
Norway	1
TOTAL	7

Televoting

Calling country	Points to Poland
Austria	12
Belgium	12
Germany	10
Iceland	10
Ireland	10
Italy	10
Norway	10
Sweden	10
The Netherlands	10
United Kingdom	10
Hungary	8
Ukraine	8
Czech Republic	7
France	7
San Marino	7
Belarus	6
Bulgaria	6
Lithuania	6
Albania	5
Denmark	5
Finland	5
Latvia	5
Russia	5
Spain	5
Switzerland	5
Croatia	4
Georgia	4
Israel	4
Slovenia	4
Azerbaijan	3
Greece	3
Cyprus	2
F.Y.R. Macedonia	2
Armenia	1
Estonia	1
TOTAL	222

The above two tables are summarised below. Notice how Poland received points from 35 countries in the televoting, up against just 4 countries in the jury voting. Interestingly Poland received at least two of each points level from 1 to 12 on televoting, including eight 10-point awards and two 12-point awards.

Points level	To Poland (Jury)	Poland Jury Points	To Poland (Televoting)	Poland Televoting Points
0	37	0	6	0
1	2	2	2	2
2	1	2	2	4
3	1	3	2	6
4	0	0	4	16
5	0	0	7	35
6	0	0	3	18
7	0	0	3	21
8	0	0	2	16
10	0	0	8	80
12	0	0	2	24
TOTAL	41	7	41	222

Looking at countries which did worse in the televoting than the jury voting, the country with the biggest difference between jury and televoting points and placing is Malta. Its televoting total of 16 points was 121 points lower than the 137 points it received from the juries. In addition, its televoting place 21st was a whopping 17 places lower than its jury place of 4th. Consequently Malta finished 12th place with 153 points. As can be seen from the following table, 23 out of 41 countries gave points to Malta during the jury voting, but only 3 countries gave televoting points to Malta.

Points level	To Malta (Jury)	Malta Jury Points	To Malta (Televoting)	Malta Televoting Points
0	18	0	38	0
1	0	0	0	0
2	2	4	0	0
3	2	6	0	0
4	4	16	0	0
5	3	15	2	10
6	4	24	1	6
7	2	14	0	0
8	2	16	0	0
10	3	30	0	0
12	1	12	0	0
TOTAL	41	137	41	16

Australia had the biggest points difference of all among the countries that received fewer points on televoting than jury voting. It received 191 points in the televoting, which was 129 points lower than the 320 points it received from the juries. However its televoting place (4th) was just 3 places lower than its jury place (1st). Even so, after being in the lead for so long, it ended up in 2nd place with 511 points. Notice how Australia received 9 lots of 10 points and 9 lots of 12 points in the jury results, but only 1 lot of 10 points and 3 lots of 12 points in the televoting. On the other hand, Australia received 10 sets of 5 points in the televoting, up against 3 sets of 5 jury points. By looking at the following table, it's obvious why Australia's televoting points total was considerably lower than its jury points total.

Points level	To Australia (Jury)	Australia Jury Points	To Australia (Televoting)	Australia Televoting Points
0	3	0	4	0
1	0	0	4	4
2	1	2	1	2
3	1	3	5	15
4	1	4	5	20
5	3	15	10	50
6	6	36	4	24
7	2	14	2	14
8	6	48	2	16
10	9	90	1	10
12	9	108	3	36
TOTAL	41	320	41	191

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Alternative Voting Presentation

During the Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Grand Final, the jury voting points from each of the participating 42 countries (including the 16 which failed to qualify) were presented in the traditional way, i.e. for each country the 1 to 10 point scores were displayed on screen when the spokesperson appeared, added to the scoreboard as a block and the spokesperson announced the 12 point score. The voting order was: Austria, Iceland, Azerbaijan, San Marino, Czech Republic, Ireland, Georgia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Malta, Spain, Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, France, Moldova, Armenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, The Netherlands, Latvia, Israel, Belarus, Germany, Russia, Norway, Australia, Belgium, United Kingdom, Croatia, Greece, Lithuania, Serbia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Albania, Estonia, Ukraine, Italy, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary, Montenegro, Sweden. This whole process took about 33 minutes. After a short break the televoting totals for each of the 26 finalists were announced. Måns Zelmerlöw and Petra Mede announced the bottom 16 countries of the televote, from 26th to 11th, in rapid succession. The top ten countries of the televote, from 10th to 1st, were announced at a considerably slower pace, with a Green Room shot of the applicable artist as each country was announced. This process, from start to finish, took about 11 minutes.

What if the two sets of points had been announced in a different manner? Two methods are described below.

Televoting Points From Spokespersons, Jury Totals From Presenters

What would have happened if the televoting points from each calling country had been announced by the 42 spokespersons first? Let's assume the order of presentation was the same as was actually used for announcement of the jury points, Austria, Iceland, Azerbaijan, San Marino, Czech Republic, Ireland, Georgia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Malta, Spain, Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, France, Moldova, Armenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, The Netherlands, Latvia, Israel, Belarus, Germany, Russia, Norway, Australia, Belgium, United Kingdom, Croatia, Greece, Lithuania, Serbia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Albania, Estonia, Ukraine, Italy, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary, Montenegro, Sweden.

Four things are obvious:
Russia would have finished 1st with 361 points and Ukraine would have finished 2nd with 323 points (a margin of 38 points).
Poland would have finished 3rd with 222 points, having received televoting points from 35 countries (including eight 10-point awards and two 12-point awards).
United Kingdom would have only received points 3 times (3 from Ireland, 1 from Malta, 4 from Australia), and ended up 25th with just 8 points.
Czech Republic wouldn't have received any points at all as the 42 spokespersons announced the televoting points, and thus finished last with nul points.

The following are speculated. Although all the jury points and televoting points each of the 42 countries awarded to the finalists are available on eurovision.tv, the only way to confirm the following would be able to create a graphic simulation of the scoreboard, starting with the finalists on zero in the order they performed, and each of the 42 countries' televoting points (1 to 12) being added in the order mentioned above.
For some of the voting a "cat and mouse" situation might have occurred between Russia and Ukraine.
From some point, Russia would probably have held its lead to the end.
At some point Russia would almost certainly have become uncatchable on televoting points alone. However due to the smaller final margin (38 points) between Russia and Ukraine than the 109 points margin between Australia and Ukraine on the jury voting, this would have happened considerably later in the voting procedure (possibly only 3 or 4 countries before the end) than when Australia became uncatchable on jury points alone during the show (after Albania, 34th to call, had announced its jury points).

Once all 42 spokespersons had finished, the scoreboard would have looked like this.

Russia	361	Hungary	56
Ukraine	323	Cyprus	53
Poland	222	Belgium	51
Australia	191	The Netherlands	39
Bulgaria	180	Italy	34
Sweden	139	Croatia	33
Armenia	134	Georgia	24
Austria	120	Malta	16
France	109	Israel	11
Lithuania	96	Spain	10
Serbia	80	Germany	10
Azerbaijan	73	United Kingdom	8
Latvia	63	Czech Republic	0

Afterwards Måns and Petra would have announced the jury totals for each of the 26 finalists, starting with the bottom 16 from 26th to 11th, in rapid succession, as follows: N.B. I have simulated the procedure by putting the jury totals alongside the televoting totals into a spreadsheet and sorting it as each jury total was added. This is how I've been able to describe country movements on the scoreboard. To see all the simultaneous movements by multiple counties as each jury total would have been read out, one would need an animated graphic simulation of the scoreboard.

1 point to Germany (taking them to 22nd initially)
7 points to Poland (would have stayed 3rd initially)
31 points to Austria (taking them to 6th place initially)
35 points to Serbia (taking them to 9th place initially)
40 points to Croatia (taking them to 12th place initially)
41 points to Czech Republic (taking them from bottom to 18th place initially, and pushing UK to bottom)
43 points to Cyprus (taking them to 11th place initially)
44 points to Azerbaijan (taking them to 9th place initially)
52 points to Hungary (taking them to 12th place initially)
54 points to United Kingdom (taking them from bottom to 17th place initially, and pushing Spain to bottom)
67 points to Spain (taking them from bottom to 15th place initially, and pushing Israel to bottom)
69 points to Latvia (taking them to 9th place initially)
80 points to Georgia (taking them to 14th place initially)
90 points to Italy (taking them to 10th place initially)
104 points to Lithuania (taking them to 4th place initially)
114 points to The Netherlands (taking them to 7th place initially)

The scoreboard would have looked like this after the bottom 16 jury totals were announced.

Russia	361	Serbia	115
Ukraine	323	France	109
Poland	229	Hungary	108
Lithuania	200	Georgia	104
Australia	191	Cyprus	96
Bulgaria	180	Spain	77
The Netherlands	153	Croatia	73
Austria	151	United Kingdom	62
Sweden	139	Belgium	51
Armenia	134	Czech Republic	41
Latvia	132	Malta	16
Italy	124	Germany	11
Azerbaijan	117	Israel	11

Måns and Petra would then have announced the top ten jury totals at a slower pace, as follows.

The country that got the tenth highest score, with 115 points is Armenia. This would have taken them to 3rd initially, thereby pushing Poland to 4th for now.

The country that got the ninth highest score, with 122 points is Sweden. This would have taken them to 3rd initially.

The country that got the eighth highest score, with 124 points is Israel. Its score would have increased considerably, from its televoting total of just 11 points to its final score of 135 points. Having dropped from its original televoting place of 22nd to its current intermediate place of 26th, it would have climbed momentarily to 11th place.

The country that got the seventh highest score, with 127 points is Bulgaria. This would have taken them to 3rd initially.

The country that got the sixth highest score, with 130 points is Belgium. Having started with a televoting total of 51 points and 16th place, and gradually dropped to 23rd as the preceding jury totals were announced, its resulting final total of 181 points would have momentarily placed it 9th.

The country that got the fifth highest score, also with 130 points is Russia. Still at the top of the scoreboard, its final total would have increased to 491 points. This would have been a big shock to Eurovision fans, after Russia had already achieved such a high televoting score. The question on many fans' minds, at this point, would have been "Is that enough to win?" For now that would have been a 168 point lead against Ukraine, a 300 point lead against Australia and a 382 point lead against France. Russia would now have to have hoped Ukraine would get 167 or fewer jury points, Australia 299 or fewer jury points and France would get 381 or fewer jury points to be sure of winning.

At this point the scoreboard would have looked like this:

Russia	491	Italy	124
Ukraine	323	Azerbaijan	117
Bulgaria	307	Serbia	115
Sweden	261	France	109
Armenia	249	Hungary	108
Poland	229	Georgia	104
Lithuania	200	Cyprus	96
Australia	191	Spain	77
Belgium	181	Croatia	73
The Netherlands	153	United Kingdom	62
Austria	151	Czech Republic	41
Israel	135	Malta	16
Latvia	132	Germany	11

With four countries (Australia, France, Malta, Ukraine) still to receive their jury totals, the presenters would, no doubt, have drawn attention to that, and probably would have shown Green Room shots of the artists representing those countries in four on-screen windows before continuing.

The country that got the fourth highest score, with 137 points is Malta. Its score would have climbed from its televoting total of just 16 points to its combined total of 153 points. Having originally placed 21st in the televoting, and gradually dropped to just 25th, it would have suddenly climbed to 10th place for now.

The country that got the third highest score, with 148 points is France. Its score would have climbed from its televoting total of 109 points to its combined total of 257 points. Having originally placed 9th in the televoting, and gradually dropped to 18th, it would have climbed to 5th for now.

That would have left Australia and Ukraine still to receive their jury totals. Australia would have needed 301 or more to beat Russia, and Ukraine would have needed 169 or more to beat Russia. The question on many Eurovision fans minds would have been "Does either Australia or Ukraine have enough points to pass Russia?" at this point.

The country that got the second highest score, with 211 points is Ukraine. Its score would have climbed from its televoting total of 323 points to its combined total of 534 points, thereby putting it in the lead and Russia in 2nd place.

That would have just left Australia, now requiring 344 points or more to pass Ukraine. The country that got the highest score, with 320 points is Australia. Its score would have climbed from its televoting total of 191 points to its combined total of 511 points. Having originally placed 4th in the televoting, and gradually dropped to 9th, it would have passed Russia but not Ukraine. The top three would thus have been 1st Ukraine 534 points. 2nd Australia 511 points, 3rd Russia 491 points.

The final scoreboard would have looked like this:

Ukraine	534	Israel	135
Australia	511	Latvia	132
Russia	491	Italy	124
Bulgaria	307	Azerbaijan	117
Sweden	261	Serbia	115
France	257	Hungary	108
Armenia	249	Georgia	104
Poland	229	Cyprus	96
Lithuania	200	Spain	77
Belgium	181	Croatia	73
Malta	153	United Kingdom	62
The Netherlands	153	Czech Republic	41
Austria	151	Germany	11

N.B. The official Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Grand Final web page shows The Netherlands as having finished 11th, and Malta 12th. The way I added the jury totals to the televoting scores in my spreadsheet and sorted it resulted in the country that had just received a jury total being placed one higher than any country which already had the same intermediate or combined score. This is why Malta appears 11th and The Netherlands appears 12th in the above scoreboard illustration. Anyway, this is the only tiebreaker situation in the list of combined jury and televoting totals.

The biggest shock would have been Poland who, having finished 3rd with 222 points on televoting, received just 7 more points on the jury voting. Graham Norton and other national commentators would have probably said "That's them doomed" or something similar in the local language. Poland would have stayed in 3rd place until Armenia's jury total was revealed, thereby pushing Poland momentarily to 4th. Thereafter Poland would gradually have fallen to its final placing of 8th.

The United Kingdom would have peaked at 17th place immediately after its jury total (54 points) was announced, and gradually dropped, to settle in its final overall place 24th once Malta's jury total was revealed.

Overall, the time taken to announce the 42 sets of televoting points followed by the 26 finalists' jury totals would have been about the same; in this case about 33 minutes for the 42 sets of televoting points and 11 minutes for the 26 jury voting totals. However it's important to remember, that viewers voted by phone, text or app during the live grand final Saturday 14 May 2016, whereas juries voted during the dress rehearsal the previous evening. Just before the jury results were about to be announced, Jon Ola Sand stated that the EBU had a valid result from the 42 professional juries, and they were thus ready to present the jury results, but more time was needed to validate and verify the televoting results. The final validation and verification of the televoting results was done whilst the 42 spokespersons announced the jury results. Once all 42 spokespersons had announced the jury results, Jon Ola Sand stated that the EBU had a valid televoting result, and they were ready to reveal the televoting totals in the new manner. Announcing the televoting scores in the traditional manner (by 42 spokespersons) first would have delayed the start of the scoring procedure considerably, thereby necessitating further interval acts.

Jury and Televoting Points From Spokespersons

What if the 42 spokespersons had announced the jury points first, in the order they did (from Austria to Sweden), and then the same 42 spokespersons had announced the televoting points in the same order? The jury voting procedure would have been exactly the same as actually happened on the night, and the scoreboard, after all the jury results were in, would have been like this.

Australia	320	Georgia	80
Ukraine	211	Latvia	69
France	148	Spain	67
Malta	137	United Kingdom	54
Russia	130	Hungary	52
Belgium	130	Azerbaijan	44
Bulgaria	127	Cyprus	43
Israel	124	Czech Republic	41
Sweden	122	Croatia	40
Armenia	115	Serbia	35
The Netherlands	114	Austria	31
Lithuania	104	Poland	7
Italy	90	Germany	1

The following would have happened as the televoting points were announced by the 42 spokespersons and added to the scoreboard:
Czech Republic wouldn't have appeared at all among the results this time around.
United Kingdom would have only received points 3 times (3 from Ireland, 1 from Malta, 4 from Australia).
Poland would have appeared 35 times this on this round (televoting points) instead of just 4 times on the first lap (jury points); hence Poland would have gradually climbed to its final position of 8th (and perhaps momentarily a little higher).
At some point, Australia would have lost its lead.
Eventually Ukraine would have still won.

I have discovered the following by starting with the final combined jury and televoting results, and subtracting individual countries' televoting points in reverse order. After the 40th country Hungary had announced its televoting points, the top two would have been 1st Ukraine 519, 2nd Australia 499. With Ukraine just 20 points ahead of Australia, it would still have been possible for Australia to win if Australia got the remaining two 12s and Ukraine got no more than another 3 points. Ukraine would still not have been safe yet. After Montenegro had announced its televoting points, which included 8 to Ukraine and none to Australia, the top two would have been 1st Ukraine 527, 2nd Australia 499. With Ukraine now 28 points ahead of Australia, and just one country still to announce its televoting points (hence a maximum of 12 more points to either country), Ukraine would have been uncatchable at this point. Anyway Sweden gave 7 points to Ukraine and 12 points to Australia on televoting, narrowing Ukraine's lead to 23 points against runner-up Australia.

Two questions still remain:
1) At what point would Australia have lost its lead as the spokespersons announced the televoting points?
2) Would a temporary "cat and mouse" situation between Ukraine and Australia (or even a brief three horse race between Russia, Ukraine and Australia) have arisen?

The best way of answering these would be to create a graphic simulation of the scoreboard as it stood at the end of the jury voting, and adding the 1 to 12 televoting points from each country in the same order as the jury points were announced. Putting the 42 countries televoting scores into a spreadsheet containing the 26 finalists' jury totals would be time consuming and long-winded.

The whole scoring procedure, from start to finish, would have been slow and long winded, about 33 minutes for the jury points and another 33 minutes for the televoting points, and the final scoreboard would have ended up identical to the way it did via the presentation method that was used. Even though it would have taken until after 41 out of 42 countries had announced their televoting points for Ukraine becoming mathematically uncatchable, this method would have defeated the original purpose of awarding separate jury points and televoting points.

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Conclusion

The new voting system used in Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Grand Final certainly produced some shocks and surprises, and plenty for keen fans to analyse well after the winner was announced. As a UK citizen, I was naturally disappointed that the UK finished 25th with just 8 points in the televoting after finishing 17th with 54 jury points, and hence 24th overall with 62 points. Having got 54 jury points, I hoped the UK would get just as many, if not more televoting points, and end up on the left hand side of the scoreboard. Furthermore I still can't get over Poland finishing 25th with just 7 points in the jury voting, but 3rd with a colossal 222 points in the televoting, and thus 8th place and 229 points overall. One thing is certain, if the EBU keeps the same voting system next year and beyond, freak results like Poland had this year (or even more extreme) will happen again!

It was very unfortunate for Russia, which won the televoting with a colossal 361 points (a margin of 38 points against Ukraine), but finished just 3rd overall with 491 points. In my opinion, Australia was even more unfortunate, having won the jury voting with 320 points (a margin of 109 points against Ukraine) after leading the jury voting from early on, and remaining top of the scoreboard right up to when the penultimate televoting points total (323 to Ukraine) was announced, thus finishing 2nd overall with 511 points. Being pipped at the post after being top of the scoreboard for so long is always shocking and disappointing. However you must bear in mind, Russia finished with a jury total of just 5th place and 130 points, whereas Australia finished just 4th in the televoting, with 191 points. Hence this year the overall winner was neither the jury vote winner (Australia) nor televote winner (Russia), but the country which finished 2nd in both jury and televoting, Ukraine. Despite placing only 2nd in the jury voting with 211 points and 2nd in the televoting with 323 points, Ukraine managed to win outright with 511 points, thereby beating both Australia and Russia.

Nonetheless, I like this new voting system very much, and feel it's perfectly fair; I hope the EBU continues using this system next year and beyond. The announcement of the televoting totals added to the excitement of the scoring procedure; in fact I think that was the highlight of the entire Grand Final. What all countries eligible to participate in the Eurovision Song Contest (including those which failed to reach the Grand Final this year, and those which didn't enter at all this year) need to bear in mind is this:

Winning one voting system (jury or televoting) and finishing fourth or fifth in the other may not be enough to win outright.
If a country finishes second in the jury voting and second in the televoting, it's nonetheless still possible to win outright (especially if the countries which won each system fared badly in the opposite system).
It's possible to have a very low score / placing in one system and high score / placing in the other, and (almost certainly) get a middle-of-the-road placing overall.
In an extreme case, a country could finish last with nul points on jury voting and win the televoting with a record breaking points total for one voting system alone (or vice versa).
To be sure of winning the Contest outright, you ideally need to win one system (jury or televoting) and finish at least third (possibly even at least second) in the other.

All of this will inevitably make it even more challenging than ever for any country to win Eurovision. Each country needs to pick a song that will impress both the professional jury members and the televoting viewers in most other countries to maximise their scores in both regimes.

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