Eurovision Song Contest 2026 Analysis

Here are all the 25 finalists, in the order they will perform tonight:
Denmark, Germany, Israel, Belgium, Albania, Greece, Ukraine, Australia, Serbia, Malta, Czechia, Bulgaria, Croatia, United Kingdom, France, Moldova, Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Sweden, Cyprus, Italy, Norway, Romania, Austria.

Now for the 10‬ countries which failed to reach the final, but which will still vote tonight:‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Portugal, San Marino, Switzerland.

N.B. Any use of “Tuesday” throughout this post means Tuesday 12 May 2026. Any use of “Thursday” means Thursday 14 May 2026. Any use of “tonight” or “this evening” means Saturday 16 May 2026.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex-USSR)

In: Lithuania. Out: Estonia, Latvia.

Only one of the three Baltic nations, Lithuania qualified. I’m glad Lithuania qualified on Tuesday evening, because Lion Ceccah has an amazing voice, he demonstrated his ability to sing in Lithuanian, Spanish and English, but I saw his entry as a borderline qualifier. I’m extremely disappointed and upset that Latvia didn’t qualify on Thursday evening, because I thought Atvara’s “Ēnā” was the best entry that night (I ranked it top in My Eurovision Scoreboard);; the song was wonderfully staged. To a lesser extent, I’m disappointed (but not surprised) that Estonia failed to qualify on Tuesday evening, because I liked their entry. Of course, Estonia and Latvia will still have to give (but won’t be able to receive) jury and public vote points tonight, so they will both be able to give 12 jury points and 12 public vote points to Lithuania. However, Lithuania won’t be able to vote for Estonia or Latvia. It’ll be interesting to see who Lithuania gives points to.

Nordic area

In: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden. Didn’t enter: Iceland.

Out of the four members of this group, which entered this year, all four qualified. The only missing member of this group is Iceland, which chose not to enter at all this year. The upshot of this is, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden will all be able to give each other their top three jury points and their top three public vote points.

Benelux

In: Belgium. Out: Luxembourg. Didn’t enter: Netherlands.

I was surprised to see Belgium qualify on Tuesday evening, because I thought their entry was among the songs least likely to qualify that night. I’m disappointed Luxembourg failed to qualify on Thursday evening, but that said, I thought their entry was one of the weaker entries that night, which is why I saw it as a maybe qualifier. It’s a pity the Netherlands didn’t’ enter at all this year, but that was the Dutch broadcaster’s choice. The upshot of this is, Luxembourg will still be able to give 12 jury points and 12 public vote points to Belgium, but Belgium won’t be able to vote for Luxembourg. Most likely, Belgium will give top jury and public vote points to France. Obviously, neither Belgium nor Luxembourg will be able to vote for the Netherlands.

Former Yugoslavia

In: Croatia, Serbia. Out: Montenegro. Didn’t enter: Bosnia & Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Slovenia.

Only three former Yugoslav countries (Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia) entered this year. Of those, Croatia and Serbia qualified, whereas Montenegro failed to qualify. I’m glad Croatia qualified as LELEK’s “Andromeda” a good Balkan style song, which well sung, and well staged for its style. I had my doubts about that song being able to qualify. I would rather Serbia’s “Kraj Mene” hadn’t qualified, as it’s alternative metal, and I’ve never liked metal music in general. Nonetheless, plenty of people all over Europe, Australia and the rest of the world enjoy metal music very much, and they would have wanted Serbia in the final. Anyway, the upshot of this is, Croatia and Serbia will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 public vote points, and Montenegro will be able to give its top two jury points and its top two public vote points to Croatia and Serbia.

Central Europe

In: Austria, Czechia, Germany, Poland. Out: Switzerland. Didn’t enter: Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia.

This is a tricky group, it’s more difficult to spot trends here, and voting among these countries tends to be unpredictable. Anyway, this has been a good year so far for this group, because four of the five members of this group, that are taking part this year, are in the Grand Final. Of the four that are in the final, two countries (Czechia and Poland) reached the Grand Final via one of the semi-finals this week. Of course, Austria automatically qualified this year as host country, and Germany is automatically guaranteed a place in the final every year as a Big Four / Five member. Switzerland failed to qualify this year. The upshot of all this, Austria, Czechia, Germany and Poland will all be able to exchange jury points and public vote points among each other tonight, whereas Switzerland will be able to give jury points and televote points to Austria, Czechia, Germany and Poland. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in this group.

Greece and Cyprus

In: Cyprus, Greece.

Grece qualified on Tuesday evening, and Cyprus qualified on Thursday evening. The upshot of this is, Greece and Cyprus will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 public vote points.

Iberian Peninsula

Out: Portugal. Didn’t enter: Andorra, Spain.

This group hardly deserves a mention this year, because Portugal didn’t qualify for the final and, unthinkable as it may seem, Spain chose not to enter this year. Nonetheless, Portugal will still have to give jury points and public vote points tonight. It’ll be interesting to see who Portugal gives its points to as it can’t give points to its neighbour, Spain this year.

Founding Seven

By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano, Switzerland in 1956:

In: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Out: Luxembourg, Switzerland. Didn’t enter: Netherlands.

Six of the seven countries which participated in the first ever Eurovision Song Contest in 1956. It’s a pity the Netherlands didn’t enter at all this year. Of the six which entered, Belgium was a surprise qualifier on Tuesday evening, but Luxembourg and Switzerland failed to qualify on Thursday evening. Of course, France, Germany and Italy are automatic finalists every year as Big Four / Five members.

And Finally

Tonight's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in. Four of my seven “Definitely want to qualify” countries’ songs (Sweden, Croatia, Finland, Lithuania) made it to the final on Tuesday evening, and seven of my nine “Definitely want to qualify” countries’ songs (Cyprus, Denmark, Australia, Ukraine, Albania, Malta, Norway) qualified on Thursday evening. I would have preferred Latvia to have qualified in place of Bulgaria on Thursday evening. It was obvious that Greece and Serbia were going to qualify on Tuesday evening, and that Bulgaria was going to qualify on Thursday evening, and I would have been shocked if any of those hadn’t qualified. At the end of the day, different people have different musical tastes to me and I cannot expect to have all my desired countries qualify. Good luck to the artists of the 25 countries taking part tonight, may the best song win.

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