Saturday, 11 May 2024

Eurovision Song Contest 2024 Analysis

Please note that writing this post began during the afternoon of Saturday 11 May 2024, after the Netherlands had officially been disqualified.

Here are all the 25 finalists, in the order they will perform tonight:
Sweden, Ukraine, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Israel, Lithuania, Spain, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Greece, United Kingdom, Norway, Italy, Serbia, Finland, Portugal, Armenia, Cyprus, Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia, Georgia, France, Austria.

Now for the 11‬ countries which failed to reach the final, but which will still vote tonight:‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
Albania, Australia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Iceland, Malta, Moldova, Poland, San Marino.

N.B. The Netherlands was among the top ten countries, which qualified from the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 Second Semi-Final, on Thursday 9 May 2024, and whose entry was planned to perform between the entries of Luxembourg and Israel in the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 Grand Final. During the morning of Saturday 11 May 2024, an official announcement was made that the Netherlands had been disqualified. For this reason, Netherlands is shown struck through in the list above. It was subsequently revealed, by the EBU, that the Netherlands will still give its jury points and televote points tonight.

N.B. Any use of “Tuesday” throughout this post means Tuesday 7 May 2024. Any use of “Thursday” means Thursday 9 May 2024. Any use of “tonight” or “this evening” means Saturday 11 May 2024.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex-USSR)
In: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.

For the first time since 2015, all three Baltic countries have made it to the final. I’m glad Lithuania qualified on Tuesday evening, because Silvester Belt’s “Luktelk” is a very lively, catchy song, which ended up among the entries I most wanted to qualify that evening, and one I felt was among the entries most likely to qualify that evening. Estonia and Latvia both qualified on Thursday evening. I’m glad Latvia qualified, because Dons is a talented singer to be able to perform the way he did, and I think “Hollow” is a good ballad, but that said, I’m amazed and surprized that Latvia reached the final, because I thought “Hollow” had almost no chance of qualifying, especially in a televote-only semi-final. I was less keen on Estonia’s entry, which is why it ended up on my “Prefer not to qualify” list Thursday evening, and I thought it would be a questionable qualifier, but anyway, it qualified. The upshot of this is, these three countries will be able to give each other their top two jury points and their top two televote points.

Nordic area
In: Finland, Norway, Sweden. Out: Denmark, Iceland.

This has been another unusual year for Nordic area. Finland and Iceland both performed on Tuesday evening, but Finland qualified, whereas Iceland failed to qualify, on Tuesday evening. Denmark and Norway both performed on Thursday evening, but Norway qualified, whereas Denmark failed to qualify, on Thursday evening. Of course, Sweden, as host country, was guaranteed a place in this year’s Grand Final, but nonetheless performed its entry live, in full, on Tuesday evening. The upshot of all this is that Finland, Norway and Sweden will all be able to give their top two jury points and their top two televote points to each other, whereas Denmark and Iceland will be able to give their top three jury points and their top three televote points to Finland, Norway and Sweden tonight.

Benelux
In: Luxembourg. Out: Belgium, Netherlands.

N.B. The Netherlands was among the ten countries which qualified for the Grand Final on Thursday evening, but has since been disqualified.

It was wonderful, if not unthinkable, to see Luxembourg back for the first time since 1993. I’m glad Luxembourg made it to the final. As far as I’m concerned, it would have been a shame of them to fail to qualify after their long absence, especially as their entry was so lively, catchy and well-performed and staged on Tuesday evening. They genuinely deserved a place in the final. I’m disappointed that Belgium failed to qualify on Thursday evening; I thought Mustii’s “Before the Party's Over” was a good power ballad, but at the time of Thursday’s performance, I thought it only had a borderline chance of qualifying in a televote-only semi-final. As for the Netherlands, they qualified on Thursday evening, but it has since become necessary for their entry to be disqualified, thereby effectively wasting a Grand Final slot that could have been taken by one of the six non-qualifiers on Thursday evening. I personally didn’t like “Europapa” as it’s not my taste in music at all (it seems to contain a lot of talking), and I thought it was on the silly side; hence why it ended up on my “Prefer not to qualify” list that night, and I certainly won’t miss it tonight. Despite their late disqualification, the Netherlands will still be awarding jury and public vote points tonight, but will obviously no longer be able to receive any points. As a result, Belgium and the Netherlands will both be able to give their 12 jury points and their 12 televote points to Luxembourg tonight. However, Luxembourg won’t be able to give any points to either Belgium or the Netherlands. It’ll be interesting to see who Luxembourg gives their jury and televoting points to; France and Switzerland could be likely possibilities.

Former Yugoslavia
In: Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia.

Only three of the former Yugoslav countries (Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia) entered this year, but this has been a lucky year for them in that all three of them qualified to the Grand Final. Interestingly, all three of their artists performed in, and qualified from, the First Semi-Final on Tuesday evening. It’s hardly surprising Croatia qualified that evening, because Baby Lasagna’s “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” was tipped to win both the First Semi-Final and the Grand Final, even before the First Semi-Final began. I’m glad Serbia’s entry made it through, because I think “RAMONDA” is a beautiful ballad, but I’m surprised it managed to qualify in a televote-only semi-final, as I thought that song would appeal more to professional juries than the public. That means they’ll all be able to give each other their top two jury points and their top two televoting points.

Central Europe
In: Austria, Germany, Slovenia, Switzerland. Out: Czechia, Poland. Didn’t enter: Hungary, Slovakia.

This is a tricky group, it’s more difficult to spot trends here, and voting among these countries tends to be unpredictable. Anyway, this has been a good year so far for this group, because four of the six members of this group, that are taking part this year, are in the Grand Final. Of the four that are in the final, three countries (Austria, Slovenia, Switzerland) reached the Grand Final via one of the semi-finals this week. Of course, Germany is automatically guaranteed a place in the final every year as a Big Five member. Czechia and Poland both failed to qualify this year. The upshot of all this, Austria, Germany, Slovenia and Switzerland will all be able to exchange jury points and televote points among each other tonight, whereas Czechia and Poland will both be able to give jury points and televote points to Austria, Germany, Slovenia and Switzerland. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in this group.

Greece and Cyprus
In: Cyprus, Greece.

Greece and Cyprus were in separate semi-finals this year, so they weren’t able to vote for each other during the semi-finals. Anyway, Cyprus performed, and qualified, on Tuesday evening, whereas Greece performed, and qualified, on Thursday evening. I’m glad the Cypriot entry “Liar”, sung by Silia Kapsis, qualified; it’s a lively, catchy song, and among the entries I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening. On the other hand, Greece ended up on my “Prefer not to qualify” Thursday evening. Anyway, Greece and Cyprus will both be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televote points tonight.

Iberian Peninsula
In: Portugal, Spain. Didn’t enter: Andorra.

I’m glad Portugal qualified, because iolanda’s “Grito” is an unusual song, full of Portugal’s musical style, and best of all, it’s being sung in Portuguese. Their entry was among the songs I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening, and I was amazed and surprised it qualified, because I thought it would struggle to qualify in a televote-only semi-final. Of course, Spain is guaranteed a place in the Grand Final every year, as a Big Five member. Anyway, I quite like Spain’s entry this year; it’s a lively, catchy song from start to finish, and I thought it was well performed and well staged on Thursday evening. The upshot of this is that Spain and Portugal will be able to give their 12 jury points and their 12 televote points to each other.

Founding Seven
By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:

In: France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Switzerland. Out: Belgium, Netherlands.

N.B. The Netherlands was among the ten countries which qualified for the Grand Final on Thursday evening, but has since been disqualified.

It’s been another good year for the seven countries which participated in the first ever Eurovision Song Contest in 1956. Luxembourg is back for the first time since 1993, and managed to qualify on Tuesday evening. The only two countries missing this year’s Grand Final, from this group, are Belgium, which failed to qualify on Thursday evening, and the Netherlands, which despite qualifying on Thursday evening, has since been disqualified this morning. Of course, France, Germany and Italy are automatic finalists every year as Big Five members.

And Finally
Tonight's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in. Six of my eight “Definitely want to qualify” countries’ songs (Cyprus, Serbia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Portugal, Luxembourg) made it to the final on Tuesday evening, and six of my ten “Definitely want to qualify” countries’ songs (Switzerland, Austria, Latvia, Georgia, Israel, Norway) qualified on Thursday evening. I would have preferred Azerbaijan and Australia to have qualified instead of Ireland and Slovenia on Tuesday evening, and any three out of Malta, Albania, Denmark and Belgium to have qualified in place of Netherlands, Greece, Estonia on Thursday evening. At the end of the day, different people have different musical tastes to me and I cannot expect to have all my desired countries qualify. It was obvious that the Netherlands was almost certain to qualify on Thursday evening (and likely to win on Thursday evening), and even I would have been shocked it hadn’t qualified. It’s just unfortunate that it became necessary to disqualify the Netherlands this morning, by which time it was too late to bring back the highest placed non-qualifier from Thursday evening as a last-minute substitute, for various reasons. Good luck to the artists of the remaining 25 countries taking part tonight, may the best song win.

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