Eurovision Song Contest 2022 Analysis

Here are all the 25 finalists, in the order they will perform tomorrow night:
Czech Republic, Romania, Portugal, Finland, Switzerland, France, Norway, Armenia, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Germany, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Greece, Iceland, Moldova, Sweden, Australia, United Kingdom, Poland, Serbia, Estonia.

Now for the ‭15‬ countries which failed to reach the final, but which will still vote tomorrow night:‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Georgia, Ireland, Israel, Latvia, Malta, Montenegro, North Macedonia, San Marino, Slovenia.

N.B. Any use of "Tuesday" throughout this post means Tuesday 10 May 2022. Any use of "Thursday", "yesterday evening" or "last night" means Thursday 12 May 2022. Any use of "tomorrow" means Saturday 14 May 2022.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex-USSR)

In: Estonia, Lithuania. Out: Latvia.

Two members of this trio made it to the final this year, those being Estonia and Lithuania. I’m glad Estonia qualified last night as their wild west style song “Hope” is a lively, catchy entry; it’ll be a good one to have as the last song of tomorrow’s line-up. I’m also pleased to see Lithuania in the final; although Lithuania was one of my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” entries on Tuesday evening, Sentimentai” is a beautiful ballad. On the other hand, I’m glad Latvia failed to qualify, because I regard “Eat Your Salad” as a protest song, and on top of which I didn’t think much of the song’s structure / style. The upshot of all this is that, Estonia and Lithuania will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televote points to each other, and Latvia will be able to give their top two jury points and top two televote points to Estonia and Lithuania.

Nordic area

In: Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden. Out: Denmark.

Basically, it’s a carbon copy of last year in the Nordic area. Just like last year, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden all qualified for the final, whereas Denmark failed to qualify this year. I’d have preferred Norway to have not qualified on Tuesday evening as I wasn’t all that keen on “Give That Wolf A Banana”, but I guessed it would go through just because it’s lively and punchy. I’m overjoyed Iceland qualified Tuesday evening, because “Með Hækkandi Sól” is a country ballad, which I feel sounds magical. I thought Iceland would have been one of the countries least likely to qualify Tuesday evening, but thankfully, Iceland is in the final. I’m also glad Finland and Sweden qualified last night. Although I’m not a rock fan, “Jezebel” is a toned-down form of rock compared to Blind Channel’s “Dark Side” last year, so unusual for me, I particularly wanted to see Finland in the Grand Final this year, and voted for them yesterday evening. As for Sweden, “Hold Me Closer” is a powerful song, which was well staged, and I thought it was one of the best entries in last night’s semi-final, so I particularly wanted to see Sweden in the Grand Final, and would have been shocked if they hadn’t qualified. The upshot of all this is that Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden will all be able to give high jury points and high televote points to each other, and Denmark will be able to give their high jury points and high televote points to Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden tomorrow night.

Benelux

In: Belgium, Netherlands. Didn’t enter: Luxembourg.

I’m glad the Netherlands qualified on Tuesday evening, because “De Diepte” is a beautiful ballad; I particularly like its pre-chorus and chorus. The Netherlands was among the countries I most wanted to qualify on Tuesday evening. On the other hand, I was disappointed with Belgium’s entry again this year, which is why I put Belgium on my “Prefer not to qualify” list yesterday evening. Against my wishes, Belgium qualified, but evidently there must be plenty of others who like Jérémie Makiese’s “Miss You”. The upshot of this is, Belgium and the Netherlands will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points tomorrow evening. That said, if last year is anything to go by, Belgium and the Netherlands don’t necessarily give each other high points when they have the chance to.

Central Europe

In: Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Switzerland. Out: Austria, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Hungary, Slovakia.

This is a tricky group, it’s more difficult to spot trends here, and voting between these countries tends to be unpredictable. Three countries in this group (Czech Republic, Poland, Switzerland) reached the Grand Final via one of the semi-finals this year. Of course, Germany is automatically guaranteed a place in the final every year as a Big Five member). Austria and Slovenia failed to qualify, but they will still be able to vote for Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and/or Switzerland. Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Switzerland will all be able to vote for each other, but they won’t be able to vote for Austria or Slovenia. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in this group.

Greece and Cyprus

In: Greece. Out: Cyprus.

Greece and Cyprus were in separate semi-finals this year, so they weren’t able to vote for each other during the semi-finals. Anyway, Greece qualified on Tuesday evening, whereas Cyprus failed to qualify last night. I’m glad Greece qualified; although I feel “Die Together” has a rather dull start, and takes until the second chorus to really get going, Amanda has a nice voice and she sang well live, which is why Greece as among the countries I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening. I’m disappointed Cyprus didn’t qualify, because “Ela” is another beautiful ballad, which I feel is more Greek sounding than Greece’s entry. So, Cyprus will still be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televote points to Greece tomorrow evening, but Greece won’t be able to give 12 jury points or 12 televote points to Cyprus tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to see who Greece gives their 12 jury points and 12 televote points to.

Romania and Moldova

In: Moldova, Romania.

Another pair of countries which tend to favour each other at Eurovision, and which also happened to be in separate semi-finals (Moldova on Tuesday and Romania on Thursday), so they too were unable to vote for each other either evening. Both Moldova and Romania both qualified to the final this year. Moldova was one of my “Definitely want to qualify” countries on Tuesday evening, whereas Romania was one of my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” countries on Thursday evening. The upshot of this is Romania and Moldova will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points tomorrow evening.

Former Yugoslavia

In: Serbia. Out: Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Bosnia & Herzegovina.

This has been another bad year for the former Yugoslavia, with just one of the five ex-Yugoslav countries taking part this year reaching the final. Being as non-qualifying countries vote in the Grand Final, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovenia will all be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to Serbia tomorrow evening, but who will Serbia give its points to? Serbia won’t be able to vote for Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Slovenia, as they have all been eliminated.

Founding Seven

By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:

In: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands. Didn’t enter: Luxembourg.

It’s been a good year for the seven countries which participated in the first ever Eurovision Song Contest in 1956. The only country missing this year’s final, from this group, is Luxembourg which last took part in 1993. Mind you, the only three countries from this group which needed to battle their way through the semi-finals this year were Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland, all of which managed to qualify. France, Germany and Italy are automatic finalists every year as Big Five members. In fact, this year only, Italy is an automatic finalist on two counts; Big Five member and host country.

And Finally

Tomorrow evening's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in. There were just a few “Prefer not to qualify” countries which went through against my wishes both evenings (Ukraine and Norway on Tuesday, Belgium and Czech Republic on Thursday). I would have Croatia, plus either Slovenia, Bulgaria or Denmark to have qualified instead of Ukraine and Norway on Tuesday evening, and Malta and Cyprus to have qualified in place of Belgium and Czech Republic yesterday evening. At the end of the day, different people have different musical tastes to me and I cannot expect to have all my desired countries qualify. Although I personally don’t like Ukraine’s entry this year, it was obvious that “Stefania” would go through, and even I would have been shocked if it hadn’t qualified.

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