Eurovision Song Contest 2022 Analysis

Here are all the 25 finalists, in the order they will perform tomorrow night:
Czech Republic, Romania, Portugal, Finland, Switzerland, France, Norway, Armenia, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Germany, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Greece, Iceland, Moldova, Sweden, Australia, United Kingdom, Poland, Serbia, Estonia.

Now for the ‭15‬ countries which failed to reach the final, but which will still vote tomorrow night:‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Georgia, Ireland, Israel, Latvia, Malta, Montenegro, North Macedonia, San Marino, Slovenia.

N.B. Any use of "Tuesday" throughout this post means Tuesday 10 May 2022. Any use of "Thursday", "yesterday evening" or "last night" means Thursday 12 May 2022. Any use of "tomorrow" means Saturday 14 May 2022.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex-USSR)

In: Estonia, Lithuania. Out: Latvia.

Two members of this trio made it to the final this year, those being Estonia and Lithuania. I’m glad Estonia qualified last night as their wild west style song “Hope” is a lively, catchy entry; it’ll be a good one to have as the last song of tomorrow’s line-up. I’m also pleased to see Lithuania in the final; although Lithuania was one of my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” entries on Tuesday evening, Sentimentai” is a beautiful ballad. On the other hand, I’m glad Latvia failed to qualify, because I regard “Eat Your Salad” as a protest song, and on top of which I didn’t think much of the song’s structure / style. The upshot of all this is that, Estonia and Lithuania will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televote points to each other, and Latvia will be able to give their top two jury points and top two televote points to Estonia and Lithuania.

Nordic area

In: Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden. Out: Denmark.

Basically, it’s a carbon copy of last year in the Nordic area. Just like last year, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden all qualified for the final, whereas Denmark failed to qualify this year. I’d have preferred Norway to have not qualified on Tuesday evening as I wasn’t all that keen on “Give That Wolf A Banana”, but I guessed it would go through just because it’s lively and punchy. I’m overjoyed Iceland qualified Tuesday evening, because “Með Hækkandi Sól” is a country ballad, which I feel sounds magical. I thought Iceland would have been one of the countries least likely to qualify Tuesday evening, but thankfully, Iceland is in the final. I’m also glad Finland and Sweden qualified last night. Although I’m not a rock fan, “Jezebel” is a toned-down form of rock compared to Blind Channel’s “Dark Side” last year, so unusual for me, I particularly wanted to see Finland in the Grand Final this year, and voted for them yesterday evening. As for Sweden, “Hold Me Closer” is a powerful song, which was well staged, and I thought it was one of the best entries in last night’s semi-final, so I particularly wanted to see Sweden in the Grand Final, and would have been shocked if they hadn’t qualified. The upshot of all this is that Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden will all be able to give high jury points and high televote points to each other, and Denmark will be able to give their high jury points and high televote points to Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden tomorrow night.

Benelux

In: Belgium, Netherlands. Didn’t enter: Luxembourg.

I’m glad the Netherlands qualified on Tuesday evening, because “De Diepte” is a beautiful ballad; I particularly like its pre-chorus and chorus. The Netherlands was among the countries I most wanted to qualify on Tuesday evening. On the other hand, I was disappointed with Belgium’s entry again this year, which is why I put Belgium on my “Prefer not to qualify” list yesterday evening. Against my wishes, Belgium qualified, but evidently there must be plenty of others who like Jérémie Makiese’s “Miss You”. The upshot of this is, Belgium and the Netherlands will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points tomorrow evening. That said, if last year is anything to go by, Belgium and the Netherlands don’t necessarily give each other high points when they have the chance to.

Central Europe

In: Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Switzerland. Out: Austria, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Hungary, Slovakia.

This is a tricky group, it’s more difficult to spot trends here, and voting between these countries tends to be unpredictable. Three countries in this group (Czech Republic, Poland, Switzerland) reached the Grand Final via one of the semi-finals this year. Of course, Germany is automatically guaranteed a place in the final every year as a Big Five member). Austria and Slovenia failed to qualify, but they will still be able to vote for Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and/or Switzerland. Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Switzerland will all be able to vote for each other, but they won’t be able to vote for Austria or Slovenia. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in this group.

Greece and Cyprus

In: Greece. Out: Cyprus.

Greece and Cyprus were in separate semi-finals this year, so they weren’t able to vote for each other during the semi-finals. Anyway, Greece qualified on Tuesday evening, whereas Cyprus failed to qualify last night. I’m glad Greece qualified; although I feel “Die Together” has a rather dull start, and takes until the second chorus to really get going, Amanda has a nice voice and she sang well live, which is why Greece as among the countries I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening. I’m disappointed Cyprus didn’t qualify, because “Ela” is another beautiful ballad, which I feel is more Greek sounding than Greece’s entry. So, Cyprus will still be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televote points to Greece tomorrow evening, but Greece won’t be able to give 12 jury points or 12 televote points to Cyprus tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to see who Greece gives their 12 jury points and 12 televote points to.

Romania and Moldova

In: Moldova, Romania.

Another pair of countries which tend to favour each other at Eurovision, and which also happened to be in separate semi-finals (Moldova on Tuesday and Romania on Thursday), so they too were unable to vote for each other either evening. Both Moldova and Romania both qualified to the final this year. Moldova was one of my “Definitely want to qualify” countries on Tuesday evening, whereas Romania was one of my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” countries on Thursday evening. The upshot of this is Romania and Moldova will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points tomorrow evening.

Former Yugoslavia

In: Serbia. Out: Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Bosnia & Herzegovina.

This has been another bad year for the former Yugoslavia, with just one of the five ex-Yugoslav countries taking part this year reaching the final. Being as non-qualifying countries vote in the Grand Final, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovenia will all be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to Serbia tomorrow evening, but who will Serbia give its points to? Serbia won’t be able to vote for Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Slovenia, as they have all been eliminated.

Founding Seven

By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:

In: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands. Didn’t enter: Luxembourg.

It’s been a good year for the seven countries which participated in the first ever Eurovision Song Contest in 1956. The only country missing this year’s final, from this group, is Luxembourg which last took part in 1993. Mind you, the only three countries from this group which needed to battle their way through the semi-finals this year were Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland, all of which managed to qualify. France, Germany and Italy are automatic finalists every year as Big Five members. In fact, this year only, Italy is an automatic finalist on two counts; Big Five member and host country.

And Finally

Tomorrow evening's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in. There were just a few “Prefer not to qualify” countries which went through against my wishes both evenings (Ukraine and Norway on Tuesday, Belgium and Czech Republic on Thursday). I would have Croatia, plus either Slovenia, Bulgaria or Denmark to have qualified instead of Ukraine and Norway on Tuesday evening, and Malta and Cyprus to have qualified in place of Belgium and Czech Republic yesterday evening. At the end of the day, different people have different musical tastes to me and I cannot expect to have all my desired countries qualify. Although I personally don’t like Ukraine’s entry this year, it was obvious that “Stefania” would go through, and even I would have been shocked if it hadn’t qualified.

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Eurovision Song Contest 2022 Second Semi-Final

Host country: Italy (RAI)
Venue: PalaOlimpico, Turin, Italy
Hosts: Laura Pausini, Alessandro Cattelan, Mika
Date: Thursday 12 May 2022

N.B. Any use of "tonight" or "this evening" throughout this post means Thursday 12 May 2022. All times in this post are in BST.

The Opening

After the initial opening sequence, the Second Semi-Final began with "The Italian Way", ode to Italian hand gestures performed by Alessandro Cattelan. Afterwards the three hosts appeared on stage to give their opening speeches.

The Songs

9 minutes after the start of the show (20:09 BST) it was time for the first song. Each song was introduced by a postcard film related to the appropriate country.

Song 1: Finland - The Rasmus “Jezebel”

I watched Uuden Musiikin Kilpailu 2022.Final live, online from the UK, on 26 February 2022. Finland has gone for a rock song again this year, however it’s a somewhat toned down form of rock compared to last year. I’m mystified as to why the lead singer is wearing a yellow raincoat, and held a yellow balloon in the early part of the song. Unsurprisingly this song included bursts of strobe lighting, as well as static yellow lighting. Altogether, a lively, catchy song, but I think the lead singer’s voice ought to have been stronger. Now I’m not normally keen on rock, but oddly enough I’d like to see this in the Grand Final, and I think it’s got a good chance of getting there. See you Saturday, The Rasmus.

Song 2: Israel - Michael Ben David “I.M”

#ISR Israel has sent some good songs over the years, but I’m disappointed with Israel this year. “I.M” is a totally different sort of lively song to “Jezebel”. “I.M” seems a bit of a mess to me, with a beat which seems a bit on the irritating side to me. Unsurprisingly this lively song included strobe lighting. I’m mystified as to the significance of the white line on the stage early on, and the red on the stage later. I’d rather this stays out of Saturday’s final.

Song 3: Serbia - Konstrakta “In Corpore Sano”

#SRB Serbia has gone for a rather obscure entry this year. Looking at the lyrics, this is about being healthy. Undeniably that’s important for everyone to remember, but I’m not sure this is the right place to promote that. I was unimpressed by the preview video, but I think tonight’s live performance is better. The lead singer sang well, and the song has a good beat. The background imagery enhanced the song. I wouldn’t mind this in the Grand Final, but wouldn’t miss it if it’s not there.

Song 4: Azerbaijan - Nadir Rustamli “Fade To Black”

#AZE Azerbaijan has entered a ballad this year. Nadir has a good voice, and sang well this evening, including whilst lying on one of the steps for part of the song. I’m mystified as to the need for the steps though. The lighting was varied; white and blue lighting early on, some red lighting later and flashing lights during the most powerful part of the song. This is another song which I wouldn’t mind seeing in the final, but I wouldn’t miss this if it’s not there. I think this is very much a borderline qualifier though.

Song 5: Georgia - Circus Mircus “Lock Me In”

#GEO Well I didn’t think much of this when watching the preview video, and tonight’s live performance isn’t much better. This is a very repetitive song, the lines “Take me to the spacecraft, Take me to dance club” are, in my opinion, downright irritating. Thankfully I find the lines “Lock me up, Lock me down, Lock me in, Lock me out, Lock me sideways” more tolerable, but even then I think they are over used. The only thing I did like about this was the patterns on the background screens (which, for some strange reason, included lips) and on the stage. I hope this stays out of Saturday night’s final, but I have a feeling this could just slip through, just because it’s unusual.

Song 6: Malta - Emma Muscat “I Am What I Am”

#MLT This is one of the tonight’s songs I liked the most when watching the preview videos of tonight’s 18 songs in performance order, but I’m a bit disappointed with the live performance tonight. Emma has a nice voice, but I think she could have sung a bit more strongly. I’m mystified as to why she stood on the grand piano, rather than sitting at it. I like the use of the yellow lighting, and the burst of fireworks near the end. Anyway, I’d still like to see this on Saturday night, but I have a feeling this will struggle to qualify.

A short break followed at this point.

Song 7: San Marino - Achille Lauro “Stripper”

#SMR San Marino has entered a hard rock / heavy metal song this year. Unsurprisingly this included use of strobe lighting, and flame effects in the latter part of the song. I’m mystified as to the need for the two cages on stage. Altogether a very lively entry, enhanced by the lighting and flame effects. I’d rather this doesn’t go through, but again, I think there’s a fairly good chance this will go through.

Song 8: Australia - Riley “Not The Same”

#AUS A ballad, which going by the lyrics, has a message to get across. Sheldon has a beautiful voice, and he sang well. I’m mystified as to the significance of the steps though, and I question the need to include strobe / flashing lights in a ballad. I’d like to see this in the final. I’d like to see this in the Grand Final.

Song 9: Cyprus - Andromache “Ela”

#CYP A ballad, which I think is more Greek sounding than Greece’s entry this year. I like the use of blue lighting during the verses, and bursts of red / orange lighting during the first chorus. I’m mystified as to the significance of the wavy structure,, which has wedges in it. For some mysterious reason there was yellow lighting near the end, and changing back to blue right at the very end. Altogether another good song, well performed. I’d like to see this in the Grand Final.

Song 10: Ireland - Brooke “That's Rich”

#IRL I quite liked the preview video of this song, but I’m not so sure about the live performance tonight. This makes good use of hearts, including on the stage. I question the need for the distorted voice during the bridge; I think that spoils it a bit. Altogether a lively, catchy entry, and good use of light beams. I wouldn’t mind seeing this on Saturday night, but I don’t think I’ll miss it if it’s not there.

Song 11: North Macedonia - Andrea “Circles”

#MKD Another ballad. This one’s not bad, and Andrea has a good voice. I like the light beams, and the patterns on the stage, but I don’t think it’s a very memorable song. I wouldn’t mind this in the final, but I wouldn’t miss this if it’s not there.

Song 12: Estonia - Stefan “Hope”

#EST Estonia has gone for a wild west style song this year. This was one of the songs from this semi-final that I liked the most when watching the preview videos in performance order, and I like it just as much tonight. I like the way it started with Stefan shown in a yellowed monochrome, old film effect, an this transformed to full colour. Some of the wild west scenes from the preview video were included on the background screen at one point in the song. I definitely want to see this in the Grand Final, and will be gutted if it’s not there.

A short break followed at this point. In the UK, BBC Three saw Sam Ryder speaking to the commentators.

Song 13: Romania - WRS “Llámame”

#ROU Another lively song, with a really catchy chorus; I like the way the words of the chorus appear on the background screen and stage floor. This song is enhanced by dancers and orange lighting. This is another song I wouldn’t mind seeing in the final, but wouldn’t miss it if it’s not there. I think this is a questionable qualifier.

Song 14: Poland - Ochman “River”

#POL A beautiful song, Krystian Ochman has a beautiful voice, and he sang very well. I like the use of the blue lighting for much of the song, but I’m mystified as to the need for so much strobe lighting usage about two thirds of the way through, because this is a ballad, not a hard rock song. Anyway, I’d definitely like to see this in the Grand Final.

Song 15: Montenegro - Vladana “Breathe”

#MNE Another beautiful ballad; Vladana has a nice voice and she sang well. The blue lighting added to the atmosphere, but I’m mystified as to the significance of the figures on the background screen for part of the song. I wouldn’t mind seeing this in the final, but wouldn’t miss it if it’s not there. Still, I think it’ll be a miracle for this to qualify; realistically I think it’s highly unlikely to be there.

Song 16: Belgium - Jérémie Makiese “Miss You”

#BEL Another ballad, but in my opinion, it’s not a particularly memorable one. I think there’s too much exaggeration of the word “now” when it appears. I liked the blue and white light beams during the first half of the song; they were just what a song of this style needed, but it seems odd as to why they changed to orange / red lighting about mid-way. I’d rather this doesn’t qualify.

Song 17: Sweden - Cornelia Jakobs “Hold Me Closer”

#SWE I watched Melodifestivalen 2022 Final live, online from the UK, on 12 March 2022. Although I ranked this just 6th on My Eurovision Scoreboard that evening, this has grown on me since. Just like Melodifestivalen, Cornelia began on the stage floor. Everything else from the Melodifestivalen performance is there, including the characteristic microphone and the big circle with green and red light shining through. I’d definitely like to see this in the Grand Final, and this is one of the most likely qualifiers tonight. I’ll be shocked if this doesn’t qualify.

Song 18: Czech Republic - We Are Domi “Lights Off”

#CZE The last song of the night already; it’s amazing how time flies! This isn’t bad; I think I prefer tonight’s live performance to the preview video, but this isn’t one I’m overly keen to see in the final. It’s got a good beat, and I liked some of the images on the background screen, as well as the light beams, but that’s about it really. Altogether a lively entry to close the show.

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Televoting and Recap

After the songs finished, the hosts reappeared to announce the start of the voting at 21:?? BST. A recap of the songs followed. The UK voted in tonight's semi-final, and therefore UK viewers saw the voting numbers at the bottom of the screen during the recap.

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My Preferences

Here are my preferences based solely on all of tonight's performances:
Definitely want to qualify: Finland, Malta, Australia, Cyprus, Estonia, Poland, Sweden.
Wouldn't mind qualifying: Serbia, Azerbaijan, Ireland, North Macedonia, Romania, Montenegro.
Prefer not to qualify: Israel, San Marino, Belgium, Czech Republic.
Definitely don't want to qualify: Georgia.

So, these are the ones I want to see Saturday night: Finland, Malta, Australia, Cyprus, Estonia, Poland, Sweden, plus three of Serbia, Azerbaijan, Ireland, North Macedonia, Romania, Montenegro.

The UK voted this evening; I voted for Finland, Malta, Australia, Estonia, Poland.

My Qualification Predictions

Well this is a difficult one; it’s almost unpredictable. Anyway, here are my predictions of which countries will and won’t qualify, based solely on all of tonight's performances:
Almost certain qualifiers: Sweden.
Likely qualifiers: Finland, Serbia, San Marino, Australia, Estonia, Poland.
May qualify: Israel, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Malta, Cyprus, Belgium, Czech Republic.
Highly unlikely to qualify: Ireland, North Macedonia, Romania, Montenegro.

Voting closed at 21:48 BST.

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Eurovision Song Contest 2022 Second Semi-Final Results

Here are the results, which were announced in a random order before 22:00 BST. Any use of "tonight" still means Thursday 12 May 2022.

My desired qualifiers: Finland, Malta, Australia, Cyprus, Estonia, Poland, Sweden, plus three of Serbia, Azerbaijan, Ireland, North Macedonia, Romania, Montenegro.

Actual qualifiers (in order of announcement): Belgium, Czech Republic, Azerbaijan, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Australia, Sweden, Romania, Serbia.

Bold entries represent the actual qualifiers that match my "Definitely want to qualify" preferences, and italic entries represent the ones that match my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" preferences.

OUT: Cyprus, Georgia, Ireland, Israel, Malta, Montenegro, North Macedonia, San Marino.

I’m overjoyed that Australia, Estonia, and Poland are through, after I voted for them. Australia’s song has a message to it, and I particularly like Estonia’s wild west style entry. As for Poland, Krystian Ochman has a beautiful voice, and he sang well tonight. I’m also glad Finland is in the final; although I’m not a rock fan, “Jezebel” is a toned-down form of rock compared to Blind Channel’s “Dark Side” last year, so unusual for me, I was particularly to see Finland in the Grand Final this year, and therefore I voted for them as well. In addition, I’m glad Sweden are through; even though I didn’t vote for them, I thought their song was one of the best tonight, and was convinced this was almost guaranteed to qualify.

I’m disappointed that Malta and Cyprus didn’t qualify. Although I was a bit disappointed by Malta’s live performance tonight compared to the preview video, I still voted for Malta as I felt their song deserved a place in the final. That said, I had my doubts about that qualifying.

Three of the countries on my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” list: Azerbaijan, Romania and Serbia qualified. So, I got one wish, 3 of my 6 “Wouldn't mind qualifying” countries made it to the final. That said, when Serbia was the last country to be called out, I would have preferred Malta or Cyprus (one of my missing “Definitely want to qualify” countries, but at least Serbia as the tenth qualifier was better than having Israel, San Marino or Georgia (all of which I didn’t want) in the final.

I’m glad Georgia have been eliminated because I thought “Lock Me In” was the worst song of this semi-final, which is why Georgia ended up on my “Definitely don't want to qualify” list. With 18 countries competing for 10 slots in the Grand Final, I feel it would have been totally inappropriate to have been in the final at the expense of another better song.

So, 5 of my 7 “Definitely want to qualify” songs went through, and 3 of my 6 “Wouldn't mind qualifying” reached the final. Not bad I suppose. At the end of the day, I cannot expect to have all the songs I personally want in the final, and all the songs I personally don’t like eliminated.

Anyway, no matter how I personally feel about which countries' songs went thorough and which ones didn't, all the artists who performed tonight deserve equal respect. Congratulations to the ten countries which qualified to the final, and commiserations to the eight which failed to reach the final. So that means all 25 finalists are now confirmed and 15 countries have been eliminated (but will still vote in the final). Roll on the Eurovision Song Contest 2022 Grand Final at 20:00 BST Saturday evening.

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Eurovision Song Contest 2022 First Semi-Final

Host country: Italy (RAI)
Venue: PalaOlimpico, Turin, Italy
Hosts: Laura Pausini, Alessandro Cattelan, Mika
Date: Tuesday 10 May 2022

N.B. Any use of "tonight" or "this evening" throughout this post means Tuesday 10 May 2022. All times in this post are in BST.

The Opening

After the initial opening sequence, the first semi-final began with an instrumental interpretation of “Nessun Dorma”, with what appeared to be someone putting their hands through laser beams to create the sound effect. This led seamlessly into a song “The Sound of Beauty”. Afterwards the three hosts appeared on stage to give their opening speeches.

The Songs

Eleven minutes after the start of the show (20:11 BST) it was time for the first song. Each song was introduced by a postcard film related to the appropriate country.

Song 1: Albania - Ronela Hajati “Sekret”

It’s difficult being the first one to perform, but someone has to sing first. I like the eastern style sounds early on, and the chorus, but I don’t like the rap-like section that follows (I think that spoils the song). The jets of smoke / dry ice vapour certainly add to this moment in the song though. I’d rather this didn’t qualify.

Song 2: Latvia - Citi Zēni “Eat Your Salad”

Having seen the lyrics for this song, this is clearly encouraging veganism, and other changes of lifestyle to save the planet (e.g. cycling instead of driving). With this in mind, this is what I call a protest song. Given the content of the lyrics, it’s hardly surprising images of vegetables on the background screens. I’d rather this didn’t qualify, but this might well slip through in order to get the environmental across in the Grand Final.

Song 3: Lithuania - Monika Liu “Sentimentai”

#LTU Lithuania has gone for a beautiful ballad this year, and furthermore it’s sung in Lithuanian. In my opinion, this is better than the first two songs, but I think Monika’s voice ought to be stronger. At least she looked the part, with her sparkly dress, and the sparkly lighting on the background screens enhanced the performance. I wouldn’t mind this in the final, but wouldn’t miss it if it’s not there.

Song 4: Switzerland - Marius Bear “Boys Do Cry”

#SUI After a slow start, this has quite a memorable chorus. The predominantly dark stage, with the spotlight and a few other sparkling lights, was just what a song of this nature needed. Altogether a good ballad, Marius has a beautiful voice and he sang well tonight. This deserves a place in the final.

Song 5: Slovenia - LPS “Disko”

#SVN Now for quite a lively song, and it’s sung in Slovenian. The large disco ball in the background, and flashing lights at times, enhance this song. On the whole, a catchy song, but I think this will struggle to qualify as there are other lively songs in the line-up tonight.

Song 6: Ukraine - Kalush Orchestra “Stefania”

#UKR This is currently the bookies’ favourite to win tonight, and outright on Saturday. It combines Ukrainian folk with rap. I like the use of the long flute / whistle, and the folk part is bearable to me, but I feel the rap is unnecessary here. The one thing I liked the most was the patterns on the background screen, and lighting effects, which enhanced this song. I’d rather this doesn’t qualify, but mark my words, this is almost guaranteed a slot on Saturday. See you Saturday, Kalush Orchestra.

A short break followed at this point.

Song 7: Bulgaria - Intelligent Music Project “Intention”

#BUL Bulgaria has gone for a rock song this year. That said, “Intention” is a toned down form of rock compared to the entries from Finland and Italy last year. This style of rock reminds me of Status Quo. Unsurprisingly the song included strobe lighting at times, flame effects during the bridge and at the end, and orange lights between the two lots of flame effects. All these effects enhanced the song. One significant stage object was the ball with craters; but I’m mystified as to the significance of that. Altogether a lively song, but I think a song of this style could have been sung more strongly. I wouldn’t mind seeing this in the final, but I won’t miss it if it’s not there.

Song 8: Netherlands - S10 “De Diepte”

#NED The Netherlands has gone for a ballad this year, and furthermore it’s sung in Dutch. I particularly like the pre-chorus and chorus, as well as the lighting effects throughout the song. The singer has a beautiful voice, and she sang well. Sadly this may be at a disadvantage being performed between the lively entries from Bulgaria and Moldova. Anyway, I’d definitely like to see this in the final on Saturday.

Song 9: Moldova - Zdob şi Zdub & Advahov Brothers “Trenulețul”

#MDA Zdob şi Zdub previously represented Moldova in the Eurovision Song Contest in 2005 and 2011, and qualified to the final on both occasions. They are back this year with a lively song with country elements, and use of an accordion (it wouldn’t be Eurovision without an accordion). I particularly like the catchy chorus, but the words didn’t seem so clear in tonight’s live performance as in the preview video. The patterns on the wall enhanced the song. I noticed the instrumental filler near the end, presumably that was a substitute for the pause near the end of the preview video. If nothing else, a fun entry, which is why I’d like to see this on Saturday evening.

Song 10: Portugal - MARO “Saudade, Saudade”

#POR Another beautiful ballad, this one from Portugal. The members of the group sang this well, and I liked the lighting effects. I’d particularly like this in the final on Saturday, but I have a feeling this will struggle to qualify.

The hosts spoke for a moment at this point.

Song 11: Croatia - Mia Dimšić “Guilty Pleasure”

#CRO Another ballad; Mia has a beautiful voice, and she sang well live. I’m mystified as to the significance of the other members on stage though; I think Mia could have sung this just as well alone. The staging was minimal, but this is the sort of song that doesn’t need flashing lights or flame effects; Mia just sells the song through her voice. I’d particularly like to see this on Saturday night, and will be gutted if this isn’t there.

Song 12: Denmark - REDDI “The Show”

#DEN Well this is a song of contrasts. This starts with the lady singing a ballad whilst seated at the grand piano, under the spotlight, and after the first chorus this livens up to the extent of being an almost different song / musical genre. The rest of the sog, she’s standing up, playing the electric guitar (along with others), and this part of the song is appropriately accompanied by different coloured lights, flashing lights at times and smoke jets at times. Basically, this is two songs in one, which may be alright for those who enjoy both styles, but someone who likes ballads or lively songs might see this as an incomplete song with an inappropriate other part. REDDI have done their best to make the two work together, but it’s questionable whether this will get to the final. I wouldn’t mind this on Saturday, but wouldn’t miss it if it’s not there.

A short break followed at this point.

Song 13: Austria - LUM!X feat. Pia Maria “Halo”

#AUT A very lively song, and the two artists are inside a ring of lights (presumably that represents a halo). Other lighting effects include light beams from overhead, and strobe lighting at times. Smoke / dry ice jets and flame effects further enhance the song. I’m not that keen on this, but mark my words, this will be in the Grand Final on Saturday, just because it’s so lively. See you Saturday, LUM!X.

Song 14: Iceland - Systur “Með Hækkandi Sól”

I watched Söngvakeppnin 2022 Final online from the UK, one day late. Sigga, Beta and Elín won, and they’re taking part under the name Systur at Eurovision 2022. “Með Hækkandi Sól” is a country ballad, which I feel sounds magical. Sigga, Beta and Elín have nice voices, they sang well tonight, and the song was appropriately enhanced by orange lighting. I’d love to see this in the final on Saturday, and would have voted for this if I’d been able to, but I think it will be a miracle for this to qualify.

Song 15: Greece - Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord “Die Together”

#GRE From one ballad to another, it’s Greece’s turn now. This has a rather dull first verse but I like the first chorus. The trouble is, it takes until the second chorus to really get going, and the highlight of the song is near the end. My concern is some may have gone to make a coffee during the first verse, and missed out on the best part ner the end. Anyway, Amanda has a nice voice and she sand well live. The lighting effects enhanced the song. Despite the dull start, I’d like to see this in the final.

Song 16: Norway - Subwoolfer “Give That Wolf A Banana”

#NOR A lively song from Norway, with a punchy beat. It mentions bananas a lot, so it’s hardly surprising this makes extensive use of yellow lighting. In addition there are white light beams during the bridge. Close to the end, there are smoke / dry ice jets, and a few flame effects. I’m not that keen on this, but it’ll be there, just because it’s lively.

Song 17: Armenia - Rosa Linn “Snap”

#ARM The last song in the line-up already, it’s amazing how time flies! It’s a country ballad. I like the way Rosa was sitting down playing a guitar during the first verse, and stood up at the start of the first chorus. On the whole, an amazing ballad, with pleasant verses and quite a catchy chourus. I like the dry ice effects and orange lights during the final chorus.

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Televoting and Recap

After the songs finished, the hosts reappeared to announce the start of the voting at 21:31 BST. A recap of the songs followed. The UK was unable to vote in tonight's semi-final, and therefore UK viewers saw a message "UK viewers cannot vote tonight" at the bottom of the screen during the recap.

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My Preferences

Here are my preferences based solely on all of tonight's performances:
Definitely want to qualify: Switzerland, Netherlands, Moldova, Portugal, Croatia, Iceland, Greece, Armenia.
Wouldn't mind qualifying: Lithuania, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Denmark.
Prefer not to qualify: Albania, Ukraine, Austria, Norway.
Definitely don't want to qualify: Latvia.

So these are the ones I want to see Saturday night: Switzerland, Netherlands, Moldova, Portugal, Croatia, Iceland, Greece, Armenia, plus two of Lithuania, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Denmark.

Had the UK been voting in this semi-final, I would have voted for:

My Qualification Predictions

Here are my predictions of which countries will and won’t qualify, based solely on all of tonight's performances:
Almost certain qualifiers: Ukraine, Greece.
Likely qualifiers: Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Norway, Armenia.
May qualify: Albania, Latvia, Bulgaria, Moldova, Croatia, Denmark.
Highly unlikely to qualify: Lithuania, Slovenia, Portugal, Iceland.

Voting closed at 21:49 BST.

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Eurovision Song Contest 2022 First Semi-Final Results

Here are the results, which were announced in a random order before 22:00 BST. Any use of "tonight" still means Tuesday 10 May 2022.

My desired qualifiers: Switzerland, Netherlands, Moldova, Portugal, Croatia, Iceland, Greece, Armenia, plus two of Lithuania, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Denmark.

Actual qualifiers (in order of announcement): Switzerland, Armenia, Iceland, Lithuania, Portugal, Norway, Greece, Ukraine, Moldova, Netherlands.

Bold entries represent the actual qualifiers that match my "Definitely want to qualify" preferences, and italic entries represent the ones that match my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" preferences.

OUT: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Latvia, Slovenia.

I’m particularly overjoyed that Switzerland, Armenia, Iceland, Portugal and the Netherlands qualified. They all had ballads which I felt were most deserving of being in the final. I didn’t think Iceland or Portugal would qualify, but much to my surprise and amazement, they qualified. I’m also glad Greece is in the final; despite their song’s slow start it builds into quite a catchy finish. I’m also glad Moldova is in the final; “Trenulețul” is a lively, catchy song, and although some may possibly consider it to be a bit silly, I see it as a fun song if nothing else. I’m also pleased to see Lithuania in the final; although their entry was on my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” list, it’s still a good song that I think deserves a place in the final.

The only two countries on my “Prefer not to qualify” list which made it to the final are Norway and Ukraine. Although I personally don’t like Ukraine’s entry this year, it was obvious that “Stefania” would go through. After all, Ukraine has been one of the songs most likely to qualify, and strongly tipped to win the First Semi-Final, for a good while now. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Ukraine won tonight’s semi-final, but no-one will know until the EBU release the semi-final results after Saturday’s Grand Final is over. As for Norway qualifying, well I’m not surprised; I guessed their song would go through just because it’s lively.

Thank goodness Latvia didn’t go through, because I see their song as a protest song, going by its lyrics. On top of which, I felt the whole song, and the manner in which it was performed, was a bit on the silly side. Latvia is the one song I put on my “Definitely don't want to qualify” list. I did wonder if people would vote for it to be in the final, just to have the “go vegan” message there, but evidently that didn’t happen.

So, 7 of my 8 “Definitely want to qualify” songs went through, and 1 of my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” reached the final. Not bad I suppose. At the end of the day, I cannot expect to have all the songs I personally want in the final, and all the songs I personally don’t like eliminated.

Anyway, no matter how I personally feel about which countries' songs went thorough and which ones didn't, all the artists who performed tonight deserve equal respect. Congratulations to the ten countries which qualified to the final, and commiserations to the seven which failed to reach the final. So, that means fifteen finalists are now confirmed and seven countries have been eliminated. Another eighteen countries will battle it out for the ten remaining places on Thursday evening.

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Eurovision Song Contest 2021 Grand Final Extended Voting Analysis

Host country: Netherlands (AVROTROS, NOS, NPO)
Venue: Ahoy, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Hosts: Edsilia Rombley, Chantal Janzen, Jan Smit, Nikkie de Jager
Date: Saturday 22 May 2021

My main Eurovision Song Contest 2021 Grand Final review, including the opening act, songs, interval acts, jury voting and announcement of the televoting results is available here. This supplement is intended to be read in addition to, and not instead of, that report.

N.B. Any use of “tonight” or “this evening” throughout this post means Saturday 22 May 2021. Any use of “Tuesday” means Tuesday 18 May 2021, whereas any reference to “Thursday” means Thursday 20 May 2021. Any use of “this year” means 2021, whereas “next year” means 2022. All times in this post are in BST.

To make this report easier to read, I've split it into sections. Click the applicable link below to jump to the section you want to read:
Winner and Top Marks
Country Groups
Alternative Voting Presentation
Conclusion

Winner and Top Marks

Points Levels to Winner

Jury Voting

The 8 countries which awarded 12 jury points to Switzerland (which won the jury vote and finished third overall) were: Albania, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Latvia. 26 other countries gave between 1 and 10 jury points to Switzerland. Interestingly Switzerland received at least one of each 1 to 10 points level on the jury voting. 4 countries (other than Switzerland itself) gave no jury points at all to Switzerland, those being Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy.

The 4 countries which awarded 12 jury points to Italy (which finished fourth in the jury vote and was the overall winner) were: Croatia, Georgia, Slovenia, Ukraine. 24 other countries gave between 1 and 10 jury points to Italy. Interestingly, Italy received no 1-point scores on the jury voting. 10 countries (other than Italy itself) gave no jury points at all to Italy, those being Azerbaijan, Denmark, France, Ireland, Israel, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom.

The number of times Switzerland and Italy received each particular points level (or no points at all) from the other juries is summarised in the following table:

Points level	Jury to Switzerland	Switzerland Pts	Jury to Italy	Italy Pts
0	4	0	10	0
1	2	2	0	0
2	1	2	1	2
3	1	3	3	9
4	1	4	2	8
5	4	20	2	10
6	1	6	5	30
7	6	42	1	7
8	4	32	4	32
10	6	60	6	60
12	8	96	4	48
TOTAL	38	267	38	206

Televoting

Switzerland, which finished sixth with 165 points in the televote (but won the jury vote and finished third overall) received 12 televote points from just 1 other country, that being Albania. 33 other countries gave between 1 and 7 televote points to Switzerland. Interestingly, Switzerland received no 8-point or 10-point scores on televoting. 4 countries (other than Switzerland itself) gave no televote points at all to Switzerland, those being Cyprus, Georgia, Italy, Malta.

Italy, which won the televote and was the overall winner, received points from all the other 38 countries on televoting. The 5 countries which awarded 12 televote points to Italy were: Bulgaria, Malta, San Marino, Serbia, Ukraine. Amazingly, Italy received far more televote points from 10s, as can be seen in the table below. In fact, its greatest total at any particular points level was 130 televote points at the 10-point level (from 13 other countries). Interestingly Italy received no 1-point or 4-point scores on televoting.

The number of times Switzerland and Italy received each particular points level (or no points at all) in the televoting is summarised in the following table:

Points level	Tele to Switzerland	Switzerland Pts	Tele to Italy	Italy Pts
0	4	0	0	0
1	2	2	0	0
2	3	6	1	2
3	4	12	2	6
4	5	20	0	0
5	7	35	2	10
6	6	36	2	12
7	6	42	6	42
8	0	0	7	56
10	0	0	13	130
12	1	12	5	60
TOTAL	38	165	38	318

Number of 12s Received

Jury Voting

16 of the 26 finalists received at least one 12-point vote from the juries. The number of 12-point votes received by each of those 16 countries from the juries is shown in the table below.

12 Points to	No of 12s Received	Total From 12s
France	8	96
Switzerland	8	96
Italy	4	48
Malta	4	48
Bulgaria	2	24
Greece	2	24
Moldova	2	24
Albania	1	12
Cyprus	1	12
Iceland	1	12
Lithuania	1	12
Portugal	1	12
Russia	1	12
San Marino	1	12
Serbia	1	12
Ukraine	1	12

Notice that the highest number of 12-point scores (8 altogether) was received by both France (which finished second in the jury vote and second overall) and Switzerland (jury vote winner and third place overall). Italy (fourth in the jury vote and overall winner) and Malta (third in the jury vote and seventh place overall) both received the second highest number of 12-point scores (4 each). Thus, the overall winner didn’t the highest number of 12-point scores from the juries. Nine countries (Albania, Cyprus, Iceland, Lithuania, Portugal, Russia, San Marino, Serbia, Ukraine) each received just one 12-point score from the juries. Of those, Albania, Cyprus, Lithuania, San Marino and Serbia finished below the top ten in the jury vote. Clearly one 12-point jury score wasn't enough to guarantee a top 10 place in the jury voting.

Televoting

13 of the 26 finalists received at least one 12-point vote from the televoting. The number of 12-point votes received by each of those 13 countries in the televoting is shown in the table below.

12 Points to	No of 12s Received	Total From 12s
Italy	5	60
Lithuania	5	60
Serbia	5	60
Ukraine	5	60
France	4	48
Finland	3	36
Iceland	3	36
Cyprus	2	24
Greece	2	24
Moldova	2	24
Israel	1	12
Russia	1	12
Switzerland	1	12

There was a somewhat unusual distribution of 12-point scores in the televoting this time. The highest number of 12-point scores received by any one country was just 5, but a total of four countries (Italy, Lithuania, Serbia, Ukraine) received that number of 12-point scores. Of those, Italy was the televote winner and overall winner, Ukraine finished second in the televote and fifth overall, Lithuania finished seventh in the televote and eighth overall and Serbia finished ninth in the televote and fifteenth overall. The second highest number of 12-point scores (4 altogether) was received by France, which finished third in the televote and second overall. Three countries (Israel, Russia, Switzerland) each received just one 12-point score in the televoting. Of those, Israel finished below the top ten in the televote. Clearly one 12-point televote score wasn't enough to guarantee a top 10 place in the televoting.

All 12 Points

Jury Voting

The complete list of 12 jury point scores awarded to Switzerland (jury vote winner and third place overall) and Italy (jury vote fourth place and overall winner) is shown below.

#	From Country	12 Points to	Switzerland	Italy
4	Albania	Switzerland	12	4
24	Australia	Malta	10	6
11	Austria	Iceland	10	6
8	Azerbaijan	Russia	0	0
22	Belgium	Switzerland	12	2
20	Bulgaria	Moldova	0	10
30	Croatia	Italy	8	12
21	Cyprus	Greece	2	8
31	Czech Republic	Portugal	5	6
34	Denmark	Switzerland	12	0
6	Estonia	Switzerland	12	3
25	Finland	Switzerland	12	6
36	France	Greece	7	0
32	Georgia	Italy	10	12
23	Germany	France	10	6
15	Greece	Cyprus	0	4
28	Iceland	Switzerland	12	7
17	Ireland	France	5	0
1	Israel	Switzerland	12	0
13	Italy	Lithuania	0	0
16	Latvia	Switzerland	12	8
33	Lithuania	Ukraine	8	10
5	Malta	Albania	10	0
18	Moldova	Bulgaria	3	0
7	North Macedonia	Serbia	6	10
9	Norway	Malta	7	5
2	Poland	San Marino	7	5
26	Portugal	Bulgaria	7	3
29	Romania	Malta	7	3
35	Russia	Moldova	1	10
3	San Marino	France	4	10
19	Serbia	France	1	8
14	Slovenia	Italy	7	12
10	Spain	France	10	0
37	Sweden	Malta	5	10
38	Switzerland	France	0	8
39	The Netherlands	France	5	0
27	Ukraine	Italy	8	12
12	United Kingdom	France	8	0
	TOTAL		267	206

Televoting

The complete list of 12 televote point scores awarded to Switzerland (sixth in the televote and third place overall), and Italy (televote winner and overall winner) is shown below:

From Country	12 Points to	Switzerland	Italy
Albania	Switzerland	12	10
Australia	Iceland	5	7
Austria	Serbia	5	8
Azerbaijan	Israel	4	10
Belgium	France	4	8
Bulgaria	Italy	3	12
Croatia	Serbia	5	10
Cyprus	Greece	0	10
Czech Republic	Moldova	3	6
Denmark	Iceland	6	5
Estonia	Finland	2	8
Finland	Iceland	7	8
France	Ukraine	6	10
Georgia	Greece	0	8
Germany	Lithuania	2	7
Greece	Cyprus	4	10
Iceland	Finland	6	5
Ireland	Lithuania	3	6
Israel	Ukraine	6	7
Italy	Ukraine	0	0
Latvia	Lithuania	4	7
Lithuania	Ukraine	6	10
Malta	Italy	0	12
Moldova	Russia	4	8
North Macedonia	Serbia	7	8
Norway	Lithuania	2	7
Poland	Ukraine	7	10
Portugal	France	6	7
Romania	Moldova	5	10
Russia	Cyprus	5	10
San Marino	Italy	3	12
Serbia	Italy	1	12
Slovenia	Serbia	5	10
Spain	France	7	10
Sweden	Finland	5	3
Switzerland	Serbia	0	10
The Netherlands	France	7	2
Ukraine	Italy	7	12
United Kingdom	Lithuania	1	3
TOTAL		165	318

24 Points

Obviously, the maximum combined score a country can give to, or receive from another country is 24 points, that being 12 jury points and 12 televoting points. 8 of the 39 voting countries gave their 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to the same finalist, those being:

From Country	12+12 Points to
Albania	Switzerland
Cyprus	Greece
Greece	Cyprus
Lithuania	Ukraine
North Macedonia	Serbia
Spain	France
The Netherlands	France
Ukraine	Italy

As a result, 7 countries received at least one set of 12 jury points + 12 televoting points. The number of 12 jury points + 12 televoting points received by each of those 7 receiving countries is summarised in the table below. This time no country received more than two 24-point combined scores. France was the only country which received two 24-point combined scores.

12+12 Points to	No of 24s Received	Total from 24s
Cyprus	1	24
France	2	48
Greece	1	24
Italy	1	24
Serbia	1	24
Switzerland	1	24
Ukraine	1	24
	8	192

Interestingly France finished second with 248 points in the jury vote, third with 251 points in the televote and second with 499 points overall. Evidently receiving two sets of 12 jury points + 12 televoting points was not enough to win either half of the voting, or overall.

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Country Groups

Now for a look at points awarded within certain groups of countries. N.B. In the following tables, boxes for a particular country to itself (e.g., from Finland to Finland) are marked “n/a” rather than 0, as no country can vote for itself.

Nordic Area

Four of the five Nordic countries (Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) qualified for the Grand Final this year, but all five Nordic countries voted in the final as follows. Denmark, which was eliminated in the semi-finals, could only give and not receive points this time.

Jury Voting

From Country	Jury to Finland	Jury to Iceland	Jury to Norway	Jury to Sweden
Denmark	8	10	3	2
Finland	n/a	8	0	5
Iceland	5	n/a	0	0
Norway	0	2	n/a	10
Sweden	0	7	2	n/a
Group Total	13	27	5	17
Overall Jury Total	83	198	15	46
% of Jury Total	15.66%	13.64%	33.33%	36.96%

The way in which the five Nordic countries awarded (or didn't award) jury points to the four Nordic finalists is somewhat surprising this year (of course Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden could not vote for themselves). Surprisingly, no jury gave 12 points to any other country within this group. The highest individual jury score from one country to another within this group was 10 points. Iceland was the only country to receive jury points from all the other countries within this group. This blew out of the window anyone’s expectation that all four Nordic finalists would receive jury points from every other Nordic country. Furthermore, Iceland received the highest number of jury points from within this group (27 jury points), but that was just 13.64% of its jury total (198 jury points). This meant the remaining 171 jury points, which Iceland received, were from outside this group. Although Norway received just 5 jury points from within this group, that was a third of its overall jury total of 15 jury points. Sweden had the highest percentage of its jury total from within the Nordic area.

Televoting

From Country	Tele to Finland	Tele to Iceland	Tele to Norway	Tele to Sweden
Denmark	7	12	8	10
Finland	n/a	12	4	3
Iceland	12	n/a	1	10
Norway	6	10	n/a	8
Sweden	12	10	8	n/a
Group Total	37	44	21	31
Overall Tele Total	218	180	60	63
% of Tele Total	16.97%	24.44%	35.00%	49.21%

All four Nordic finalists did better within this group in the televoting. Here, each finalist received televote points from every other Nordic country. Once again, Iceland did best within this group, in that it received two 12s and two 10, giving a group total of 44 televote points. Even so, that was just under a quarter of its overall televote total of 180 points. The rest of its televote points had to come from outside the Nordic area. Finland also received two sets of 12 televote points from this group. Nonetheless, Finland’s group total of 37 televote points was just 16.97% of its overall televote total of 218 points. Sweden received nearly half its televote points from within the Nordic area, but that said, its overall televote total (63 points) was low compared to Finland and Iceland.

Baltic States (Ex USSR)

Only one member of this group, Lithuania qualified for the Grand Final. The other two members, Estonia and Latvia failed to qualify. The upshot of this was that Estonia and Latvia were able to give jury and televoting points to Lithuania, but Lithuania could not give jury or televote points to Estonia or Latvia. For this reason, Lithuania is omitted from the awarding countries within this group.

Jury Voting

From Country	Jury to Lithuania
Estonia	2
Latvia	6
Group Total	8
Overall Jury Total	55
% of Jury Total	14.55%

As can be seen, the Estonian jury gave just 2 points to Lithuania and the Latvian jury gave just 6 points to Lithuania. This blew anyone’s expectation that Estonia and Latvia would each give 12 jury points to Lithuania. Lithuania’s resulting total of 8 jury points within this group amounts to just 14.55% of its overall jury score of 55 points. The upshot of this was 47 of the jury points which Lithuania received had to come from countries outside the Baltic area.

Televoting

From Country	Tele to Lithuania
Estonia	10
Latvia	12
Group Total	22
Overall Tele Total	165
% of Tele Total	13.33%

As can be seen, Lithuania did much better within this group in the public vote. Latvia gave Lithuania the top score of 12 televote points. However, Estonia gave Lithuania only the second highest possible score of 10 televote points. This blew anyone’s expectation that Estonia and Latvia would both give 12 televote points to Lithuania. Lithuania’s resulting total of 22 televote points from within this group looks impressive, but since Lithuania ended up with an overall televote score three times as high as its overall jury score, Lithuania’s percentage of televote points within this group was slightly smaller than its percentage of jury points within this group. The upshot of this was 143 of the 165 televote points which Lithuania received had to come from countries outside the Baltic area.

Nordic and Baltic

Things get even more interesting when the Nordic and Baltic countries are analysed together as one group, because it’s possible to see how Nordic countries favour (or not favour) Baltic countries and vice versa.

Jury Voting

From Country	Jury to Finland	Jury to Iceland	Jury to Lithuania	Jury to Norway	Jury to Sweden
Denmark	8	10	0	3	2
Estonia	7	8	2	0	0
Finland	n/a	8	3	0	5
Iceland	5	n/a	0	0	0
Latvia	4	10	6	0	0
Lithuania	0	4	n/a	0	0
Norway	0	2	0	n/a	10
Sweden	0	7	0	2	n/a
Group Total	24	49	11	5	17
Overall Jury Total	83	198	55	15	46
% of Jury Total	28.92%	24.75%	20.00%	33.33%	36.96%

Televoting

From Country	Tele to Finland	Tele to Iceland	Tele to Lithuania	Tele to Norway	Tele to Sweden
Denmark	7	12	4	8	10
Estonia	12	3	10	4	1
Finland	n/a	12	5	4	3
Iceland	12	n/a	4	1	10
Latvia	8	5	12	2	1
Lithuania	7	3	n/a	5	1
Norway	6	10	12	n/a	8
Sweden	12	10	7	8	n/a
Group Total	64	55	54	32	34
Overall Tele Total	218	180	165	60	63
% of Tele Total	29.36%	30.56%	32.73%	53.33%	53.97%

Ex-Yugoslavia

Serbia was the only ex-Yugoslav country which qualified for the Grand Final this year. Of course, the other three ex-Yugoslav countries (Croatia, North Macedonia, Slovenia) which took part in the semi-finals but failed to qualify still voted in the Grand Final; however, they could only give and not receive jury and televoting points in the final. The upshot of this was, Croatia, North Macedonia and Slovenia were able to give jury and televoting points to Serbia, but Serbia could not give jury or televote points to Croatia, North Macedonia or Slovenia. For this reason, Serbia is omitted from the awarding countries within this group.

Jury Voting

From Country	Jury to Serbia
Croatia	7
North Macedonia	12
Slovenia	0
Group Total	19
Overall Jury Total	20
% of Jury Total	95.00%

As can be seen, Serbia received the top score of 12 jury points from North Macedonia, but only 7 jury points from Croatia and no jury points from Slovenia. This blew anyone’s expectation that Croatia, North Macedonia and Slovenia would each give 12 jury points to Serbia. Interestingly Serbia’s total of 19 jury points from within this group amounts to 95.00% of its overall jury score, but bear in mind, Serbia ended up with a disappointing jury total of just 20 points. Still, Serbia’s one remaining jury point had to come from outside the Ex-Yugoslavia group; interestingly that one jury point was from Albania, which although not an ex-Yugoslav country, is nonetheless located next-door to the former Yugoslav area.

Televoting

From Country	Tele to Serbia
Croatia	12
North Macedonia	12
Slovenia	12
Group Total	36
Overall Tele Total	82
% of Tele Total	43.90%

As can be seen, Croatia, North Macedonia and Slovenia each gave their top score of 12 televote points to Serbia. That meant Serbia did as well as it could within this group in the public vote, 36 televote points. Even so, that was less than half of Serbia’s televote total of 82 points. The remaining 46 televote points which Serbia received had to come from countries outside the Ex-Yugoslavia group.

English Speaking Countries

Another group worth looking at here are the English-speaking countries Australia, Ireland, Malta and the United Kingdom. Within this group, the United Kingdom automatically qualified for the Grand Final as a Big Five member. Of the other three countries which took part in the semi-finals, Malta qualified for the Grand Final, whereas Australia and Ireland failed to qualify. Of course, Australia and Ireland still voted in the Grand Final, but could only give and not receive jury and televoting points in the final.

Jury Voting

From Country	Jury to Malta	Jury to UK
Australia	12	0
Ireland	10	0
Malta	n/a	0
United Kingdom	0	n/a
Group Total	22	0
Overall Jury Total	208	0
% of Jury Total	10.58%	Incalculable

Malta did well within this group, however the 22 jury points that it received within this group were just 10.58% of its overall jury total of 208 points. This most of Malta’s jury points had to come from outside this group. Interestingly Malta received no jury points from the United Kingdom, thereby ruling out any expectation that Malta would receive jury points from every other country in this group.

The United Kingdom received no jury points at all, let alone within this group. This clearly shows that the United Kingdom cannot rely on Australia, Ireland or Malta to get some jury points.

Televoting

From Country	Tele to Malta	Tele to UK
Australia	8	0
Ireland	4	0
Malta	n/a	0
United Kingdom	6	n/a
Group Total	18	0
Overall Tele Total	47	0
% of Tele Total	38.30%	Incalculable

Malta received televote points from each of the other three members of this group but since they were all single digit scores (highest 8 from Australia), Malta scored just 18 televote points within this group. However, since Malta ended up with 47 televote points altogether (much lower than its overall jury score), Malta received 38.30% of its televote points from within this group. Obviously, that still meant that over three fifths of Malta’s televote points had to come from outside this group.

The United Kingdom received no televote points at all, let alone within this group. This clearly shows that the United Kingdom cannot rely on Australia, Ireland or Malta to get some televote points.

Central Europe

Another group is the Central European countries Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Slovenia and Switzerland (Hungary and Slovakia didn’t enter this year). Within this group, Germany automatically qualified for the Grand Final as a Big Five member. Of the other five countries which took part in the semi-finals, only Switzerland qualified for the Grand Final. Austria, Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia, all of which failed to qualify, were only able to give, and not receive, jury and televoting points in the Grand Final.

Jury Voting

From Country	Jury to Germany	Jury to Switzerland
Austria	2	10
Czech Republic	0	5
Germany	n/a	10
Poland	0	7
Slovenia	0	7
Switzerland	0	n/a
Group Total	2	39
Overall Jury Total	3	267
% of Jury Total	66.67%	14.61%

This group seems a bit more complicated with countries favouring one another. No jury gave 12 points to any other country within this group. The highest individual jury score from one country to another within this group was 10 points. Switzerland, which won the jury vote overall, received jury points from every other country in this group, including 10 from both Austria and Germany. Even so, Switzerland’s group total of 39 jury points was just 14.61% of its overall jury total of 267 points. Thus, the majority of Switzerland’s jury points had to come from outside this group.

Germany received 2 jury points from Austria, and no jury points from the remaining countries in this group. Although Germany’s resulting group total of just 2 jury points seems low, that was two thirds of its overall jury total of 3 points. Germany’s 1 remaining jury point was from Romania.

Televoting

From Country	Tele to Germany	Tele to Switzerland
Austria	0	5
Czech Republic	0	3
Germany	n/a	2
Poland	0	7
Slovenia	0	5
Switzerland	0	n/a
Group Total	0	22
Overall Tele Total	0	165
% of Tele Total	Incalculable	13.33%

Switzerland received televote points from every other country in this group, the highest being 7 from Poland. The resulting group total of 22 televote points was just 13.33% of Switzerland’s overall televote score of 165 points. Therefore, the majority of Switzerland’s televote points had to come from outside this group. Of course, Germany received no televote points at all, let alone within this group.

Other

Unsurprisingly Greece and Cyprus, both of whom qualified for the Grand Final, gave each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points.

The Netherlands gave 6 jury points and no televote points to Belgium. This blew out of the window anyone's expectation that the Netherlands would give its 12 jury points and/or 12 televote points to Belgium. Belgium’s tiny televote total of just 3 points consisted of 1 televote point from Ukraine and 2 televote points from Lithuania.

Belgium gave no jury points and no televote points to the Netherlands. This blew out of the window anyone's expectation that Belgium would give its 12 jury points and/or 12 televote points to the Netherlands.

Portugal gave no jury points and no televote points to Spain. This blew out of the window anyone's expectation that Portugal would give its 12 jury points and/or 12 televote points to Spain.

Spain gave 5 jury points and 1 televote point to Portugal. This blew out of the window anyone's expectation that Spain would give its 12 jury points and/or 12 televote points to Portugal. Interestingly Spain gave both of its 12-point scores to France.

Back to the top

Alternative Voting Presentation

During the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 Grand Final, the jury voting points from each of the participating 39 countries (including the 13 non-qualifiers) were presented in the traditional way, i.e. for each country the 1 to 10 point scores were displayed on screen when the spokesperson appeared, added to the scoreboard as a block and the spokesperson announced the 12-point score. The voting order was: Israel, Poland, San Marino, Albania, Malta, Estonia, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Norway, Spain, Austria, United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, Greece, Latvia, Ireland, Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Belgium, Germany, Australia, Finland, Portugal, Ukraine, Iceland, Romania, Croatia, Czech Republic, Georgia, Lithuania, Denmark, Russia, France, Sweden, Switzerland, The Netherlands.

This whole process took about 34 minutes. After a short break, Chantal and Jan announced the televoting totals for each of the 26 finalists, one by one, starting with the country which had the lowest jury score and finishing with the country with the highest jury score. For countries which finished in the top ten of the televote and/or jury vote, Green Room shots of the applicable artists were shown. This process, from start to finish, took about 16 minutes.

Televote Totals Last to First

What if, after the 39 countries’ jury points had been put on the scoreboard in the manner they were (from Israel to the Netherlands), the televote totals had been announced in the way they were from 2016 to 2018 inclusive, going from the finalist that finished last in the televote to the finalist that finished first in the televote? For this description, I've started with the final jury scoreboard, as it appeared when all 39 sets of jury points had been put on the scoreboard.

1	Switzerland	267	14	Lithuania	55
2	France	248	15	Moldova	53
3	Malta	208	16	Cyprus	50
4	Italy	206	17	Sweden	46
5	Iceland	198	18	San Marino	37
6	Bulgaria	140	19	Azerbaijan	32
7	Portugal	126	20	Albania	22
8	Russia	104	21	Serbia	20
9	Ukraine	97	22	Norway	15
10	Greece	91	23	Netherlands	11
11	Finland	83	24	Spain	6
12	Israel	73	25	Germany	3
13	Belgium	71	26	United Kingdom	0

Afterwards Chantal and Jan would have announced the televote totals for each of the 26 finalists, starting with the bottom 16 from 26th to 11th, in rapid succession, as follows. N.B. I have simulated the procedure by inserting the televote totals alongside the jury totals into a spreadsheet and sorting it as each televote total was added. This is how I've been able to describe country movements on the scoreboard. To see all the simultaneous movements by multiple counties as each televote total would have been read out, one would need an animated graphic simulation of the scoreboard. Comments that Graham Norton might have said are shown in square brackets.

0 points to the Netherlands (keeping them in 23rd place for now)
0 points to Germany (keeping them in 25th place for now)
0 points to Spain (keeping them in 24th place for now)
0 points to the United Kingdom (keeping them in 26th place for now)
3 points to Belgium (taking them to 12th place initially)
13 points to San Marino (taking them to 16th place initially)
20 points to Israel (taking them to 10th place initially)
27 points to Portugal (taking them to 6th place initially)
30 points to Bulgaria (taking them to 6th place initially)
33 points to Azerbaijan (taking them to 14th place initially) [That’s quite a big change.]
35 points to Albania (taking them to 15th place initially)
44 points to Cyprus (taking them to 10th place initially) [That’s quite a big change.]
47 points to Malta (taking them to 2nd place initially) [Well, that changes everything, we won’t be going to Malta next year.]
60 points to Norway (taking them to 14th place initially) [I thought the public would respond to that song a bit better, but that’s still a big change.]
62 points to Moldova (taking them to 8th place initially)
63 points to Sweden (taking them to 9th place initially)

The scoreboard would have looked like this after the bottom 16 televote totals were announced (countries which had already received their televote totals are in bold).

1	Switzerland	267	14	Greece	91
2	Malta	255	15	Finland	83
3	France	248	16	Norway	75
4	Italy	206	17	Belgium	74
5	Iceland	198	18	Azerbaijan	65
6	Bulgaria	170	19	Albania	57
7	Portugal	153	20	Lithuania	55
8	Moldova	115	21	San Marino	50
9	Sweden	109	22	Serbia	20
10	Russia	104	23	Netherlands	11
11	Ukraine	97	24	Spain	6
12	Cyprus	94	25	Germany	3
13	Israel	93	26	United Kingdom	0

The countries placed 10th to 4th would have been announced at a much slower pace. Chantal and Jan would (almost certainly) have announced the recipients of the top ten televote totals alternately. Each time the applicable country's score would have been updated and repositioned on the scoreboard, and viewers would have seen a brief shot of the applicable artist in the Green Room.

The country that got the 10th highest score, with 79 points is Greece (taking them to 6th place initially)
The country that got the 9th highest score, with 82 points is Serbia (taking them to 12th place initially)
The country that got the 8th highest score, with 100 points is Russia (taking them to 5th place initially)
The country that got the 7th highest score, with 165 points is Lithuania (taking them to 4th place initially)
The country that got the 6th highest score, with 165 points is Switzerland (keeping them in the lead for now) [Well this is interesting, is that enough for a win? We don’t know how many points are left, but with four zeroes and lots of low scores earlier, there are probably hundreds of public vote points still up for grabs.]
The country that got the 5th highest score, with 180 points is Iceland (taking them to 2nd place initially) [A respectable score from the public for Iceland, but they can’t win now. There they are, in their room.]
The country that got the 4th highest score, with 218 points is Finland (taking them to 3rd place initially)

At this point the scoreboard would have looked like this (countries which had already received their televote totals are in bold):

1	Switzerland	432	14	Serbia	102
2	Iceland	378	15	Ukraine	97
3	Finland	301	16	Cyprus	94
4	Malta	255	17	Israel	93
5	France	248	18	Norway	75
6	Lithuania	220	19	Belgium	74
7	Italy	206	20	Azerbaijan	65
8	Russia	204	21	Albania	57
9	Greece	170	22	San Marino	50
10	Bulgaria	170	23	Netherlands	11
11	Portugal	153	24	Spain	6
12	Moldova	115	25	Germany	3
13	Sweden	109	26	United Kingdom	0

With just three countries (France, Italy, Ukraine) still awaiting their televote points, Switzerland would have been currently in the lead with its final score of 432 points. Chantal or Jan would have said “The winner can now be Switzerland, who are currently in the lead, or one of the three countries that haven’t received their points from the public vote, that’s France, Italy or Ukraine”. Green Room shots of the artists representing Switzerland, France, Italy and Ukraine would have been shown in four on-screen windows before continuing.

Actually, it would now have been mathematically impossible for Switzerland to have held its lead and won outright, because the minimum any of the three remaining countries could have received from the public would have been 218 points (just like Finland). If France had received 218 points, their final score would have been 466, thereby putting them ahead of Switzerland. That's a straightforward calculation (248 + 218 = 466) which one could easily have done whilst awaiting the announcement of the next country and its actual score. However, whilst writing this, I've analysed this moment more deeply. There would have been 836 televote points remaining to share among France, Italy and Ukraine, but each of them would have had to have received at least 218 points (just like Finland). If two of the three remaining three countries had each received 218 points, that would have left 400 points for the televote winner. If France and Italy had been the next two countries, both receiving 218 points, that would have left 400 televote points for Ukraine, taking their final score to 497, which would have been enough to win outright. Alternatively, if France and Ukraine had been the next two countries, both receiving 218 points, that would have left 400 televote points for Italy, taking their final score to 606 (an outright win). If Italy and Ukraine had each received 218 points, that would have left 400 televote points for France, taking their final score to 648 (an outright win). Thus, there would still theoretically have been three possible winners, France, Italy or Ukraine.

Of course, very few viewers (if any) would have known how many televote points were left for the remaining three countries at this point. Chantal and Jan would have continued as follows.

The country that got the 3rd highest score, with 251 points is France, putting them in the lead. So the winner can now be France, or one of the two countries that haven't received their points from the public, Italy or Ukraine. [Well France is now in the lead, but is that enough to win? We’ll see. Of course, we don’t know how many points are still left.]

Green Room shots of the artists representing France, Italy and Ukraine would have been shown, left to right, across the screen, before continuing.

Actually, there would have been 585 televote points left at this point, but the minimum either Italy or Ukraine could now have received would have been 251 points (just like France), thereby leaving 334 points for the other country. If Ukraine had won the televote with 334 points, their final score would have been 431, and Italy would, with the remaining 251 televote points, have finished with a combined total of 457 (second place). Whatever happened now, it would no longer have possible for Ukraine to win, but it would have still been possible for Italy to win. Italy would have needed 294 points or more to pass France and win.

The country that got the 2nd highest score, with 267 points is Ukraine (taking them to 4th place initially) [That’s a massive boost for Ukraine, putting them in the top five, but it’s not enough for a win.]

The favourite, according to you at home, is Italy, but will they get enough points to pass France, who are currently in the lead? Italy now needs at least 294 points to pass France. [There could well be that many public vote points still available, we shall see. This is an exciting moment, it’s down to the wire.] (Green Room shots of the artists representing France and Italy would have been shown, left to right, across the screen.) Italy, the public have given you 318 points, which is enough to them in the lead. And we have a new winner of the Eurovision Song Contest, it’s Italy with 524 points.

The final scoreboard would have looked like this:

1	Italy	524	14	Sweden	109
2	France	499	15	Serbia	102
3	Switzerland	432	16	Cyprus	94
4	Iceland	378	17	Israel	93
5	Ukraine	364	18	Norway	75
6	Finland	301	19	Belgium	74
7	Malta	255	20	Azerbaijan	65
8	Lithuania	220	21	Albania	57
9	Russia	204	22	San Marino	50
10	Greece	170	23	Netherlands	11
11	Bulgaria	170	24	Spain	6
12	Portugal	153	25	Germany	3
13	Moldova	115	26	United Kingdom	0

Televoting First, Jury Totals Last

What would have happened if the televoting points from each calling country had been announced by the 39 spokespersons first? Let's assume the order of presentation was the same as was used for announcement of the jury points, as specified above.

Two things are obvious:
Italy would have finished 1st with 318 points and Ukraine would have finished 2nd with 267 points (a margin of 51 points).
The United Kingdom, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands would have all finished with zero points.

The following are speculated. Although all the jury points and televoting points each of the 39 countries awarded to the finalists are available on eurovision.tv, the only way to confirm the following would be able to create a graphic simulation of the scoreboard, starting with the finalists on zero in the order they performed, and each of the 39 countries' televoting points (1 to 12) being added in the order mentioned above.
For some of the voting a “cat and mouse” situation might have occurred between Italy, Ukraine and France.
From some point, Italy would almost certainly have held its lead to the end.
A few countries towards the end, Italy would almost certainly have become uncatchable on televoting points alone.

Once all 39 spokespersons had finished announcing their televoting points, the scoreboard would have looked like this.

1	Italy	318	14	Malta	47
2	Ukraine	267	15	Cyprus	44
3	France	251	16	Albania	35
4	Finland	218	17	Azerbaijan	33
5	Iceland	180	18	Bulgaria	30
6	Switzerland	165	19	Portugal	27
7	Lithuania	165	20	Israel	20
8	Russia	100	21	San Marino	13
9	Serbia	82	22	Belgium	3
10	Greece	79	23	United Kingdom	0
11	Sweden	63	24	Spain	0
12	Moldova	62	25	Germany	0
13	Norway	60	26	Netherlands	0

N.B. The four countries still on zero televote points would still have been in their performance order. In fact, their performance order would have been the “last resort” tiebreaker rule to separate their placings; hence their official places would have been as shown above (23rd United Kingdom to 26th Netherlands). Switzerland received televote points from 34 other countries, whereas Lithuania received televote points from 27 other countries, hence Switzerland was 6th and Lithuania was 7th in the public vote, despite both of them having 165 points.

A short break would have been held, during which Edsilia would have spoken to Måneskin from Italy, congratulating them for having won the public vote.

Two methods of announcing the 26 finalists' jury totals are outlined below.

Jury Totals Going Up Televote Scoreboard

The exact opposite of what happened in the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 Grand Final. Chantal and Jan would have started with the country that finished bottom of the televote (Netherlands), and worked their way up the scoreboard, country by country, until they reached the televote winner (Italy). Here I have simulated the procedure by inserting the jury totals alongside the televoting totals into a spreadsheet and sorting it as each jury total was added. This is how I've been able to describe country movements on the scoreboard. To see all the simultaneous movements by multiple counties as each jury total would have been read out, one would need an animated graphic simulation of the scoreboard. Comments that Graham Norton might have said are shown in square brackets.

Jan: As we’ve just explained, we will begin with the country that is now in last place, that is the Netherlands, and the Netherlands gets, from the juries, 11 points. (taking them to 22nd place initially) [At least the host nation managed to get a few points from the juries.]
Chantal: Alright we move on to Germany, and Germany has received, from the juries, 3 points. (taking them to 24th place initially) [They’ve not done much better with the juries.]
Jan: Moving on to Spain, and the jury points going to Spain are 6 points (taking them to 23rd place initially)
Chantal: We move on to the United Kingdom. [Hopefully we (the UK) should get something from the juries, we normally do.] The United Kingdom, you have received, from the juries, I’m sorry, 0 points. (keeping them in 26th place) [I honestly don’t know what to say, you can hear the response in the hall. Good for you James Newman, good for you. He’s so popular with all the other delegations.]
Jan: We have to continue. So let’s move on now to Belgium. Belgium, the juries have given you 71 points. (taking them to 11th place initially) [That’s a big change, at least they got some love from the juries.]
Chantal: And we move on, we go to San Marino. San Marino, you have received, from the juries, 37 points. (taking them to 15th place initially)
Jan: We have to move on to Israel now. Israel, the juries have given you 73 points (taking them to 9th place initially) [They’ve had quite a boost from the juries, they’re in the top ten now, but they are unlikely to be there long]
Chantal: Next up is Portugal, are you ready? Portugal, the juries have given you 126 points. (taking them to 8th place initially) [There you go, the juries come along and change everything.]
Jan: We have to move on to Bulgaria now. Bulgaria, the juries have given you 140 points. (taking them to 6th place initially) [They too were strongly favoured by the juries.]
Chantal: Next up is Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, you received, from the juries, 32 points. (taking them to 15th place initially)
Jan: We have to move on to Albania now. Albania, the juries have given you 22 points. (taking them to 19th place initially)
Chantal: We move on to Cyprus, and Cyprus has received, from the juries, 50 points. (taking them to 11th place initially)
Jan: Next up is Malta. Malta are you ready? You have received, from the juries, 208 points. (taking them to 3rd place initially) [Wow, the juries loved Malta. They can’t win outright, but did they win the jury vote? We shall see.]
Chantal: Moving on to Norway, and the juries have given Norway 15 points. (taking them to 16th place initially) [After a reasonable score from the public, the juries gave them a disappointingly low score.]
Jan: Let’s move on to Moldova. The juries have given you 53 points. (taking them to 11th place initially).
Chantal: We move on to Sweden. [They should do well; in recent years they’ve done considerably better with the juries than with the public]. The juries have given Sweden 46 points. (taking them to 12th place initially) [Well, that’s a shock, they’ve got less from the juries than from the public this year.]

With just ten countries left to receive their points from the juries, the scoreboard would have looked like this (countries which had already received their jury totals are in bold):

1	Italy	318	14	Cyprus	94
2	Ukraine	267	15	Israel	93
3	Malta	255	16	Serbia	82
4	France	251	17	Greece	79
5	Finland	218	18	Norway	75
6	Iceland	180	19	Belgium	74
7	Bulgaria	170	20	Azerbaijan	65
8	Switzerland	165	21	Albania	57
9	Lithuania	165	22	San Marino	50
10	Portugal	153	23	Netherlands	11
11	Moldova	115	24	Spain	6
12	Sweden	109	25	Germany	3
13	Russia	100	26	United Kingdom	0

Chantal: OK edging towards that moment of truth, just ten results to go, the moment that millions of people out there have been waiting for.
Jan: Ten songs still waiting for points, and from those last ten, the winner will be revealed.

Chantal: Alright, deep breath. As we said, we have ten countries left. Next up is Greece. Greece has received, from the juries, 91 points. (taking them to 7th place initially)
Jan: OK let’s move on to Serbia. Serbia, the juries have given you 20 points. (taking them to 14th place initially) [Harsh, after they did quite well in the public vote.]
Chantal: Alright, only eight countries left, and next up is Russia. Russia are you ready? You have received, from the juries 104 points. (taking them to 6th place initially)
Jan: OK let’s move on to Lithuania. Lithuania, get ready to get, from the juries, 55 points (taking them to 5th place initially) [It just goes to show, as we go up here, some of these really popular countries with the public may get comparatively low scores from the juries.]
Chantal: We move on, we move on to Switzerland. [This should do well with the juries.] Switzerland, get ready to receive, from the juries, 267 points. That means Switzerland is now in first position. Switzerland is in the lead. [That is amazing., Is that enough to win though? Of course, we don’t know how many points are left, but there could well be more high scores.]
Jan: Only five countries left. Let’s move on to Iceland. OK this will be interesting, did the juries respond to Iceland? There they are, in their room.] Iceland, from the juries, you are getting 198 points. (taking them to 2nd place initially)
Chantal: Moving on to Finland. Finland has received, from the juries, 83 points (taking them to 4th place initially) [That is unbelievable. Evidently the juries weren’t so keen on hard rock as the public were. That’s a wake-up call for Italy.]

At this point the scoreboard would have looked like this (countries which had already received their jury totals are in bold):

1	Switzerland	432	14	Sweden	109
2	Iceland	378	15	Serbia	102
3	Italy	318	16	Cyprus	94
4	Finland	301	17	Israel	93
5	Ukraine	267	18	Norway	75
6	Malta	255	19	Belgium	74
7	France	251	20	Azerbaijan	65
8	Lithuania	220	21	Albania	57
9	Russia	204	22	San Marino	50
10	Greece	170	23	The Netherlands	11
11	Bulgaria	170	24	Spain	6
12	Portugal	153	25	Germany	3
13	Moldova	115	26	United Kingdom	0

With just three countries (France, Ukraine, Italy) still awaiting their jury points, Switzerland would have been currently in the lead with its final score of 432 points. Chantal or Jan would have said “The winner can now be Switzerland, who are currently in the lead with 432 points, or one of the three countries that haven't received their points from the national juries, that's France, Ukraine or Italy”. Green Room shots of the artists representing Switzerland, France, Ukraine and Italy would have been shown in four on-screen windows before continuing.

I have analysed the situation as it would have been at this point. There would have been 551 jury points left to share among France, Ukraine and Italy. For all three of them to have finished one point below Switzerland, France would have had to have received 180 jury points, Ukraine would have had to have received 164 jury points and Italy would have had to have received 113 jury points. That would have left 94 unallocated jury points. In other words, it would have been mathematically impossible for Switzerland to have held its lead and won. Of course, most viewers wouldn’t have known that had this method of presenting the points been used. Anyway, Jan and Chantal would have continued as follows.

Jan: We move on to France. [This should do very well with the juries.] France, the juries have given you 248 points, and now France is in the lead. [That could well be enough to win. We shall see.]

Green Room shots of the artists representing France, Italy, and Ukraine would have been shown, left to right, across the screen, during the next announcement.

Chantal: France is now in the lead, but bear in mind that two countries still need to receive their points from the national juries. So the winner can be either France, or one of the two countries that haven’t received their points from the juries, Ukraine or Italy. It feels like almost everyone in Europe is holding their breath right now. We’re moving on. The next country is Ukraine. Ukraine, the juries have decided to give you 97 points. (taking them to 4th place initially) [Oh, that’s another example of a song which did very well with the public, but far less well with the juries. Still, whatever happens now, they will finish in the top five.] Everything, everything is balancing on this pivotal moment.

Green Room shots of the artists representing France and Italy would have been shown, left to right, across the screen, during the next announcement.

Jan: So only one country left. France is currently in first place, and Italy has not received their points yet. One of you will be the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2021. [I’d have thought France would do better in the jury vote than Italy. They need to get at least 182. Of course, we don’t know how many points are left.]

Chantal: If Italy gets at least 182 points, they win. So it’s either France or it’s Italy. Who will be the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2021? [I’d be surprised if Italy get that much from the juries; we’ve already seen what happened to Finland in the jury vote, but this has been full of surprises tonight.]

Jan: So here’s a recap, Italy needs at least 182 points to win. Are you ready? Italy has got, from the juries, 206 points, and now Italy is in the lead. Italy is the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 with 524 points. [Wow, unsurprisingly Italy’s hard rock song got less points from the juries than from the public, but it was still enough for them to win outright].

The final scoreboard (with Italy’s jury total included) would have looked like this

1	Italy	524	14	Sweden	109
2	France	499	15	Serbia	102
3	Switzerland	432	16	Cyprus	94
4	Iceland	378	17	Israel	93
5	Ukraine	364	18	Norway	75
6	Finland	301	19	Belgium	74
7	Malta	255	20	Azerbaijan	65
8	Lithuania	220	21	Albania	57
9	Russia	204	22	San Marino	50
10	Greece	170	23	The Netherlands	11
11	Bulgaria	170	24	Spain	6
12	Portugal	153	25	Germany	3
13	Moldova	115	26	United Kingdom	0

At this point individual countries would have been able to announce their own national jury points. Graham Norton would almost certainly have read out the UK's national jury results to UK viewers.

Jury Totals Last to First

What if, after the 39 countries' televote points had been put on the scoreboard (from Israel to the Netherlands), the jury totals had been announced going from the finalist that finished last in the jury vote to the finalist that finished first in the jury vote? Here is the scoreboard again, as it would have appeared after all the televote points had been announced, and Italy had been confirmed as having won the televote.

1	Italy	318	14	Malta	47
2	Ukraine	267	15	Cyprus	44
3	France	251	16	Albania	35
4	Finland	218	17	Azerbaijan	33
5	Iceland	180	18	Bulgaria	30
6	Switzerland	165	19	Portugal	27
7	Lithuania	165	20	Israel	20
8	Russia	100	21	San Marino	13
9	Serbia	82	22	Belgium	3
10	Greece	79	23	United Kingdom	0
11	Sweden	63	24	Spain	0
12	Moldova	62	25	Germany	0
13	Norway	60	26	Netherlands	0

Afterwards Chantal and Jan would have announced the jury totals for each of the 26 finalists, starting with the bottom 16 from 26th to 11th, in rapid succession, as follows. Once again, I have simulated the procedure by inserting the jury totals alongside the televoting totals into a spreadsheet and sorting it as each jury total was added. This is how I've been able to describe country movements on the scoreboard. To see all the simultaneous movements by multiple counties as each jury total would have been read out, one would need an animated graphic simulation of the scoreboard. Comments that Graham Norton might have said are shown in square brackets.

0 points to the United Kingdom (keeping them in 23rd place for now)
3 points to Germany (taking them to 23rd place initially) [So that means we (the UK) will end up last now.]
6 points to Spain (taking them to 22nd place initially)
11 points to the Netherlands (taking them to 22nd place initially)
15 points to Norway (taking them to 11th place initially)
20 points to Serbia (taking them to 8th place initially) [Harsh, after they did quite well in the public vote.]
22 points to Albania (taking them to 14th place initially)
32 points to Azerbaijan (taking them to 12th place initially)
37 points to San Marino (taking them to 16th place initially)
46 points to Sweden (taking them to 8th place initially) [Well, that’s a shock, they’ve got less from the juries than from the public this year.]
50 points to Cyprus (taking them to 11th place initially)
53 points to Moldova (taking them to 8th place initially)
55 points to Lithuania (taking them to 4th place initially) [Well, that changes everything, we won’t be going to Lithuania next year.]
71 points to Belgium (taking them to 15th place initially) [At least they got some love from the juries.]
73 points to Israel (taking them to 13th place initially)
83 points to Finland (taking them to 2nd place initially) [We won’t be going to Finland next year either. That should be wake-up call to Italy if the juries aren’t keen on hard rock.]

The scoreboard would have looked like this after the bottom 16 jury totals were announced (countries which had already received their jury totals are in bold).

1	Italy	318	14	Greece	79
2	Finland	301	15	Norway	75
3	Ukraine	267	16	Belgium	74
4	France	251	17	Azerbaijan	65
5	Lithuania	220	18	Albania	57
6	Iceland	180	19	San Marino	50
7	Switzerland	165	20	Malta	47
8	Moldova	115	21	Bulgaria	30
9	Sweden	109	22	Portugal	27
10	Serbia	102	23	The Netherlands	11
11	Russia	100	24	Spain	6
12	Cyprus	94	25	Germany	3
13	Israel	93	26	United Kingdom	0

The countries placed 10th to 4th would have been announced at a much slower pace. Chantal and Jan would have (almost certainly) announced the recipients of the top ten jury totals alternately. Each time the applicable country's score would have been updated and repositioned on the scoreboard, and viewers would have seen a brief shot of the applicable artist in the Green Room.

The country that got the 10th highest score, with 91 points is Greece (taking them to 7th place initially)
The country that got the 9th highest score, with 97 points is Ukraine, putting them in the lead. [They’re in the lead for now. Whatever happens now, they can’t win, but they can enjoy their moment in the lead. Still, that’s another example of a song which did very well with the public, but far less well with the juries.]
The country that got the 8th highest score, with 104 points is Russia (taking them to 6th place initially)
The country that got the 7th highest score, with 126 points is Portugal (taking them to 10th place initially) [There you go, the juries come along and change everything. Whatever happens now, they will finish on the left-hand side of the scoreboard.]
The country that got the 6th highest score, with 140 points is Bulgaria (taking them to 9th place initially) [They too were strongly favoured by the juries, and they too will finish on the left-hand side of the scoreboard.]
The country that got the 5th highest score, with 198 points is Iceland, and now they’re in the lead. [It’s good that they juries liked them, as much as the public. There they are, in their room. They can’t win, but they can enjoy their moment in the lead.]
The country that got the 4th highest score, with 206 points is Italy, and they’re now in the lead.

At this point the scoreboard would have looked like this (countries which had already received their jury totals are in bold):

1	Italy	524	14	Serbia	102
2	Iceland	378	15	Cyprus	94
3	Ukraine	364	16	Israel	93
4	Finland	301	17	Norway	75
5	France	251	18	Belgium	74
6	Lithuania	220	19	Azerbaijan	65
7	Russia	204	20	Albania	57
8	Greece	170	21	San Marino	50
9	Bulgaria	170	22	Malta	47
10	Switzerland	165	23	The Netherlands	11
11	Portugal	153	24	Spain	6
12	Moldova	115	25	Germany	3
13	Sweden	109	26	United Kingdom	0

With just three countries (France, Switzerland, Malta) still awaiting their jury points, Italy would have been currently in the lead with its final score of 524 points. Chantal or Jan would have said “The winner can now be Italy, who are currently in the lead, or one of the three countries that haven't received their points from the national juries, that's France, Switzerland or Malta”. Green Room shots of the artists representing Italy, France, Switzerland and Malta would have been shown in four on-screen windows before continuing.

I have analysed the situation as it would have been at this point. There would have been 723 jury points left to share among France, Switzerland and Malta, but the minimum any one of those three countries could now have received would have been 206 points (just like Italy). If any two of the remaining three countries both received 206 jury points, that would have left 311 points for the jury vote winner. 311 jury points would have been insufficient for either Switzerland or Malta to have won, but it would have been more than enough for France to pass Italy and win. Since it would now have been mathematically impossible for Switzerland or Malta to win, there would now have only been two possible winners, Italy or France.

Of course, very few viewers (if any) would have known how many jury points were left for the remaining three countries at this point. Chantal and Jan would have continued as follows.

The country that got the 3rd highest score, with 208 points is Malta (taking them to 5th place initially)

Green Room shots of the artists representing Italy, France and Switzerland would have been shown, left to right, across the screen, during the next announcement.

Italy is still in the lead with 524 points. So the winner can now be Italy, or one of the two countries that haven't received their points from the juries, France or Switzerland. [France could still do it, we’ll see. France needs 274 or more to win].

The country that got the 2nd highest score, with 248 points is France (taking them to 2nd place initially) [Is that enough? No, no it’s not. I think we’re off to Italy. I think we’re off to Italy.]

The favourite, according to the juries, is Switzerland, but will they get enough points to pass Italy, who are currently in the lead? Switzerland now needs at least 360 points to pass Italy. [I don’t think Switzerland can do it, I doubt if there are that many jury points left, but this has been full of surprises tonight.] (Green Room shots of the artists representing Italy and Switzerland would have been shown, left to right, across the screen.) Switzerland, the juries have given you 267 points, which is not enough to pass Italy (taking them to 3rd place). [It’s not enough. Where does that put him? Third place for Switzerland.] And we have a new winner of the Eurovision Song Contest, it’s Italy with 524 points.

1	Italy	524	14	Sweden	109
2	France	499	15	Serbia	102
3	Switzerland	432	16	Cyprus	94
4	Iceland	378	17	Israel	93
5	Ukraine	364	18	Norway	75
6	Finland	301	19	Belgium	74
7	Malta	255	20	Azerbaijan	65
8	Lithuania	220	21	Albania	57
9	Russia	204	22	San Marino	50
10	Greece	170	23	The Netherlands	11
11	Bulgaria	170	24	Spain	6
12	Portugal	153	25	Germany	3
13	Moldova	115	26	United Kingdom	0

At this point individual countries would have been able to announce their own national jury points. Graham Norton would almost certainly have read out the UK's national jury results to UK viewers.

Conclusion

This was the fifth time the two-part voting system first introduced in 2016 was used, and the second time of announcing the televoting totals starting with the country that received the lowest jury score and finishing with the country that received the highest jury score. Once again, it certainly produced some shocks and surprises, and plenty for keen fans to analyse well after the winner was announced. The biggest shock of the night was seeing the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands all receive zero points from the public. I did wonder if a mistake had occurred, because there is only likely to be one, or at the most two, 0-point totals in the public vote. From 2016 to 2019, even if one country has had 0 points from the pubic, the near-bottom few countries in the public vote have tended to get a few points (single figures).

With all this in mind, after five contests of this two-part voting system being used, I still like this system very much, and feel it's perfectly fair. I hope the EBU continues using this system in 2022 and beyond. The announcement of the televoting totals adds to the excitement of the scoring procedure; in fact, I think it's the highlight of the entire Grand Final. Mark my words, next year's Eurovision Song Contest will tell another story as far as the jury and public results are concerned.

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