Friday 13 May 2016

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Analysis

Here are all the 26 finalists, in alphabetical order (not order of performance):
Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, France, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, The Netherlands, Ukraine, United Kingdom.

Now for the 16 countries which failed to reach the final, but will still vote tomorrow night:
OUT: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Denmark, Estonia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Finland, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, San Marino, Slovenia, Switzerland.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex USSR)
IN: Latvia, Lithuania. OUT: Estonia.

An interesting result here. The sole member of this group to perform in the first semi-final, Estonia, didn't qualify, whereas the two which took part last night (Latvia and Lithuania) both qualified. Estonia's "Play" was a borderline song which ended up on my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" list Tuesday evening; I wouldn’t have minded it in the final, but won't miss it now that it hasn't got there. As far as I'm concerned, I don't think "Play" this year is as good as "Goodbye to Yesterday" was last year. I'm glad both Latvia and Lithuania reached the final last night as I liked both their entries; both were among the songs I most wanted to qualify last night and Lithuania was one of the five countries I voted for. So Latvia and Lithuania will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points, but won't be able to give anything to Estonia. However Estonia will still be able to give their 10s and 12s to Latvia and Lithuania.

Benelux
IN: Belgium, The Netherlands. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again).

Belgium and the Netherlands both reached the Grand Final this year, just like in 2013. So that means they will surely give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points. I'm glad the Netherlands are in the final, not just because of their eight-year run of not qualifying 2005 to 2012 inclusive, but because I thought they had a really good song this year. Douwe Bob's "Slow Down" among the songs I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening and I would have voted for it had I been able to. On the other hand, I'd rather Belgium hadn't qualified last night. As far as I'm concerned, Laura Tesoro's "What's The Pressure" is an entry to be valued more for the backing group's dance routine than the song itself. Although I don't dislike "What's The Pressure" (and may well join in and copy the dance routine tomorrow night), I'd rather Ireland had been the tenth country called out last night instead of Belgium.

Nordic area
IN: Sweden. OUT: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway.

This has been a very unlucky year for the Nordic area. Neither Finland nor Iceland qualified from the first semi-final on Tuesday evening, whereas neither Denmark nor Norway reached the final on Thursday evening. I am gutted and upset that Iceland didn't qualify on Tuesday evening, as "Hear Them Calling" was one of the songs I most wanted to qualify from the first semi-final; in fact I would have voted for it had I been able to. On the other hand, I'm glad Finland didn't reach the final, because I thought the live performance of "Sing It Away" Tuesday evening wasn't as good as on the CD album, and therefore it ended up on my "Prefer not to qualify" list that night. As for Denmark and Norway last night, both had borderline entries which I wouldn't have minded seeing in the Grand Final, but at the same time won't mind not seeing tomorrow. Thus none of the four Nordic countries which had to go through the semi-finals qualified this year. The only Nordic country tomorrow night will be Sweden which, as the host country, was guaranteed a place in the Grand Final anyway. Of course, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway will still be voting tomorrow night, and all will be able to give their 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to Sweden, but Sweden won't be able to give any points to any of them.

Greece and Cyprus
IN: Cyprus. OUT: Greece.

What an unusual year for Greece and Cyprus! I've known Greece reach the final and Cyprus fail to qualify, but never the other way around. Since semi-finals were first introduced in 2004, this is the first time Greece has failed to qualify from a semi-final. When the results were announced I was shocked Greece didn't qualify, because they've always qualified no matter what song they entered; in recent years they reached the final with "Alcohol is Free" and "Rise Up" which I really hated, so I was expecting them to qualify this year with "Utopian Land" (which was one of the songs I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening). I'm glad Cyprus reached the final, as "Alter Ego" was another of the songs I most wanted to qualify Tuesday evening. So Greece will be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televoting points to Cyprus, but who will Cyprus now give their two 12s to?

Former Yugoslavia
IN: Croatia, Serbia. OUT: Bosnia & Herzegovina, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Montenegro, Slovenia.

Firstly, it was great to see Bosnia & Herzegovina and Croatia back this year after missing the last few years. Nonetheless, it's been an unlucky year for the former Yugoslavia, with only two of the six ex-Yugoslav countries reaching the final. I am really disappointed that Bosnia & Herzegovina failed to qualify, as "Ljubav Je" was one of the countries I most wanted to qualify from the first semi-final Tuesday evening; in fact I would have voted for it if I'd been able to. On the other hand, I'm extremely glad Montenegro is out as "The Real Thing" was my least-liked entry Tuesday evening, which ended up on my "Definitely don't want to qualify" that night. To a lesser degree I'm also glad F.Y.R. Macedonia failed to qualify; I wasn't overly keen on "Dona" it ended up on my "Prefer not to qualify list" last night. I'm disappointed Slovenia failed to qualify; "Blue And Red" was one of the songs I most wanted to qualify last night, and for that reason I voted for it. On the other hand, I was unimpressed by Serbia's "Goodbye (Shelter)", and I'd rather it hadn't qualified. I'd have sooner seen Slovenia in place of Serbia in the final. As for Croatia, "Lighthouse" ended up on my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" list at the end of Tuesday's semi-final; I didn't mind it getting to the final, but wouldn't have missed it had it not been there. So Croatia and Serbia will be able to give each other 12 jury points and 12 televoting points. Although Bosnia & Herzegovina, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Montenegro and Slovenia won't be able to vote for each other, they'll each nonetheless be able to give their 10s and 12s to Croatia and Serbia.

Founding Seven
By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano in 1956:

IN: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands. OUT: Switzerland. (Luxembourg didn't enter yet again).

As I've already said, I'm glad the Netherlands reached the final, but would rather Belgium hadn't qualified. As for Switzerland, "The Last Of Our Kind" ended up on my "Wouldn't mind qualifying" list last night, but won't now miss it tomorrow. Of course, France, Germany and Italy, as Big Five contenders, got there automatically.

And Finally
Tomorrow evening's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in, but some of the countries I least wanted (Armenia, Georgia and Hungary) have slipped through against my wishes. I still think Iceland and Bosnia & Herzegovina deserved the places Hungary and Armenia took on Tuesday evening, and that Ireland and Slovenia deserved the places Georgia and Serbia took last night.

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