Eurovision Song Contest 2025 Analysis

Here are all the 26 finalists, in the order they will perform tonight:
Norway, Luxembourg, Estonia, Israel, Lithuania, Spain, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Austria, Iceland, Latvia, Netherlands, Finland, Italy, Poland, Germany, Greece, Armenia, Switzerland, Malta, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden, France, San Marino, Albania.

Now for the 11‬ countries which failed to reach the final, but which will still vote tonight:‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
Australia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Georgia, Ireland, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia.

N.B. Any use of “Tuesday” throughout this post means Tuesday 13 May 2025. Any use of “Thursday” means Thursday 15 May 2025. Any use of “tonight” or “this evening” means Saturday 17 May 2025.

Now let's look at some country groups:

Baltic States (Ex-USSR)

In: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.

Just like last year, all three Baltic nations qualified for the Grand Final this year. I’m glad Estonia qualified, because Tommy Cash’s “Espresso Macchiato” is such a a catchy, fun song, themed around coffee; it was obvious this was almost certain to qualify on Tuesday evening. I’m even more delighted that Latvia qualified Thursday evening, because “Bur Man Laimi” is such an out-of-the-ordinary entry. I thought that entry would struggle to qualify, especially as the semi-finals were televote only, but amazingly, it qualified. It will stand out from other song in tonight’s Grand Final. As for Lithuania’s “Tavo Akys”, I was less keen for that to qualify, but it was among the songs I didn’t mind qualifying. “Tavo Akys” seems a bit slow for rock; I always thought rock songs generally have a faster tempo. Anway, the upshot of this is, these three countries will be able to give each other their top two jury points and their top two televote points.

Nordic area

In: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden.

All five Nordic countries made it to the Grand Final this year. The last time all five Nordic countries appeared in the Grand Final was in 2014. This year, it was obvious that Sweden was almost certain to qualify on Tuesday evening, and Finland was almost certain to qualify on Thursday evening. Of the others, I’m glad Iceland and Norway qualified on Tuesday evening; on the night Norway’s “Lighter” appeared to be a likely qualifier, but Iceland’s “RÓA” seemed borderline. As for Denmark, I was less keen for Sissal‘s “Hallucination” to qualify, and in any case, I saw it as a borderline qualifier on Thursday evening. Anyway, well done to all five Nordic countries for qualifying to the Grand Final. Anway, the upshot of this is, the five Nordic countries will be able to give each other their top four jury points and their top four televote points.

Benelux

In: Luxembourg, Netherlands. Out: Belgium.

I’m particularly glad the Netherlands qualified on Tuesday evening, because I much prefer Claude’s “C'est La Vie” this year to “Europapa” last year. I’m also glad Luxembourg qualified on Thursday evening; I liked Laura Thorn’s “La Poupée Monte Le Son” enough to want to vote for it that evening, but thought it was a questionable qualifier that evening. My only disappointment in this area was seeing Belgium eliminated on Tuesday evening; I thought Red Sebastian’s “Strobe Lights” was a likely qualifier that evening. Perhaps some viewers saw it as too similar to Lithuania’s “Luktelk” last year, and didn’t vote for Belgium this year. The upshot of this is, Belgium will be able to give its top two jury and televote scores to the Netherlands and Luxembourg. On the other hand, Luxembourg and the Netherlands will be able to give each other jury and televote points tonight, but they won’t be able to vote for Belgium

Former Yugoslavia

Out:Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Bosnia & Herzegovina, North Macedonia.

Four of the six ex-Yugoslav countries (Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia) entered this year, which is one up on the last two years (Montenegro was back after a two-year absence). Unfortunately, this was a bad year for them in that they were all eliminated in the semi-finals. I would have liked to have seen Slovenia in the Grand Final, as Klemen’s “How Much Time Do We Have Left” has a message in it, but that said, one needs to do background reading about the song to realise the meaning behind the lyrics. Presumably some casual viewers who saw the songs for the first time on Tuesday evening saw Klemen “How Much Time Do We Have Left” as a “dull ballad” and didn’t vote for it, which is a pity. On the other hand, I’m glad Croatia’s “Poison Cake” failed to qualify. No doubt some people must like the entry “Poison Cake”, but I can’t be the only person who finds it way too over-powering. Anway, the four former Yugoslav countries must still vote tonight, but they won’t be able to give each other jury or televote points. One can only guess who their juries and viewers will vote for. Albania, which is not a former Yugoslav country is in the Grand Final, so the ex-Yugoslav countries could vote for Albania. Croatia may well give points to Italy, which is just across the Adriatic Sea from them.

Central Europe

In: Austria, Germany, Poland, Switzerland. Out: Czechia, Slovenia. Didn’t enter: Hungary, Slovakia.

This is a tricky group, it’s more difficult to spot trends here, and voting among these countries tends to be unpredictable. Anyway, this has been a good year so far for this group, because four of the six members of this group, that are taking part this year, are in the Grand Final. Of the four that are in the final, two countries (Austria and Poland) reached the Grand Final via one of the semi-finals this week. Of course, Switzerland automatically qualified this year as host country, and Germany is automatically guaranteed a place in the final every year as a Big Five member. Czechia and Slovenia both failed to qualify this year. The upshot of all this, Austria, Germany, Poland and Switzerland will all be able to exchange jury points and televote points among each other tonight, whereas Czechia and Slovenia will both be able to give jury points and televote points to Austria, Germany, Poland and Switzerland. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in this group.

Greece and Cyprus

In: Greece. Out: Cyprus.

This is an interesting year for these two countries. Cyprus was in the First Semi-Final on Tuesday evening, whereas Greece was in the Second Semi-Final on Thursday evening, so these two countries were unable to vote for each other in the semi-finals this year. I’m glad Greece qualified on Thursday evening, because Klavdia’s “Asteromáta” is an excellent Greek ballad, with gentle and powerful parts, and Klavdia has a beautiful voice. I had Greece on my “Definitely want to qualify” list Thursday evening. On the other hand, I won’t miss Cyprus this evening; their entry was only on my “Wouldn't mind qualifying” list Tuesday evening. Although Cyprus was eliminated on Tuesday evening, they will still vote tonight, so they will be able to give 12 jury points and 12 televote points to Greece tonight. However, Greece won’t be able to give any points in either half of the voting to Cyprus. It’ll be interesting to see who Greece gives its 12 jury points and 12 televote points to.

Iberian Peninsula

In: Portugal, Spain. Didn’t enter: Andorra.

I was surprised to see Portugal’s “Deslocado” qualify on Tuesday evening, especially as it was performed between the livelier entries from Sweden and Norway. I thought Portugal stood no chance of qualifying this year. Of course, Spain is guaranteed a place in the Grand Final every year, as a Big Five member. Anyway, I quite like Spain’s entry this year; it’s a powerful song, with a good beat, and castanets can be heard at times. Melody has a good voice, and demonstrated her talent to pitch really high. The upshot of this is that Spain and Portugal will be able to give their 12 jury points and their 12 televote points to each other tonight.

Founding Seven

By this I mean the seven countries which appeared in the very first Eurovision Song Contest in Lugano, Switzerland in 1956:

In: France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland. Out: Belgium.

It’s been another good year for the seven countries which participated in the first ever Eurovision Song Contest in 1956. The Netherlands qualified on Tuesday evening, and Luxembourg qualified on Thursday evening (it was great for them to qualify for the second year running after their long absence 1994 to 2023 inclusive). The only country missing this year’s Grand Final, from this group, is Belgium, which failed to qualify on Tuesday evening. Red Sebastian’s “Strobe Lights” seemed like a likely qualifier that evening, and it would have been nice to have all seven founding countries in tonight’s Grand Final as the Eurovision Song Contest happens to be back in Switzerland this year. Of course, France, Germany and Italy are automatic finalists every year as Big Five members, and Switzerland qualified automatically this particular year as host country.

And Finally

Tonight's Grand Final certainly looks set to be a spectacular one, and I'm really looking forward to it. Most of the countries I wanted to qualify are in. Six of my eight “Definitely want to qualify” countries’ songs (Iceland, Poland, Estonia, Sweden, Norway, Netherlands) made it to the final on Tuesday evening, and six of my seven “Definitely want to qualify” countries’ songs (Latvia, Austria, Greece, Luxembourg, Israel, Finland) qualified on Thursday evening. I would have preferred Slovenia or Belgium to have qualified instead of Ukraine on Tuesday evening, and Montenegro to have qualified in place of Armenia on Thursday evening. At the end of the day, different people have different musical tastes to me and I cannot expect to have all my desired countries qualify. Finally, further to what I have said about voting within the Baltic and Nordic areas, the fact that all three Baltic, and all five Nordic countries are in tonight’s final, means that there could be some jury and/or televoting points exchanged from certain Nordic countries to certain Baltic countries, and vice versa. Good luck to the artists of the remaining 26 countries taking part tonight, may the best song win.

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